Assessment of potential selection bias in neuroimaging studies of postoperative delirium and cognitive decline: lessons from the SAGES study.

Due to cost and participant burden, neuroimaging studies are often performed in relatively small samples of voluntary participants. This may lead to selection bias. It is important to identify factors associated with participation in neuroimaging studies and understand their effect on outcome measures. We investigated the effect of postoperative delirium on long-term (over 48 months) cognitive decline (LTCD) in 560 older surgical patients (≥ 70 years), including a nested MRI cohort (n = 146). We observed a discrepancy in the effect of delirium on cognitive decline as a function of MRI participation. Although overall difference in cognitive decline due to delirium was not greater than what might be expected due to chance (p = .21), in the non-MRI group delirium was associated with a faster pace of LTCD (-0.063, 95% CI -0.094 to -0.032, p < .001); while in the MRI group the effect of delirium was less and not significant (-0.023, 95% CI -0.076, 0.030, p = .39). Since this limits our ability to investigate the neural correlates of delirium and cognitive decline using MRI data, we attempted to mitigate the observed discrepancy using inverse probability weighting for MRI participation. The approach was not successful and the difference of the effect of delirium in slope was essentially unchanged. There was no evidence that the MRI sub-group experienced delirium that differed in severity relative to MRI non-participants. We could not attribute the observed discrepancy to selection bias based on measured factors. It may reflect a power issue due to the smaller MRI subsample or selection bias from unmeasured factors.