Dhesi Baha Raja1, Nur Asheila Abdul Taib1, Alvin Kuo Jing Teo2, Vivek Jason Jayaraj3, Choo-Yee Ting4. 1. Ainqa Health, Lot 7.01 B & C, Menara BRDB, 285 Jalan Maarof, Bukit Bandaraya, 59000 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 2. Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, National University Health System, 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549. 3. Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Level 5, Block I, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 4. Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Persiaran Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor, Malaysia.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The computer simulation presented in this study aimed to investigate the effect of contact tracing on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and infection in the context of rising vaccination rates. METHODS: This study proposed a deterministic, compartmental model with contact tracing and vaccination components. We defined contact tracing effectiveness as the proportion of contacts of a positive case that was successfully traced and the vaccination rate as the proportion of daily doses administered per population in Malaysia. Sensitivity analyses on the untraced and infectious populations were conducted. RESULTS: At a vaccination rate of 1.4%, contact tracing with an effectiveness of 70% could delay the peak of untraced asymptomatic cases by 17 d and reduce it by 70% compared with 30% contact tracing effectiveness. A similar trend was observed for symptomatic cases when a similar experiment setting was used. We also performed sensitivity analyses by using different combinations of contact tracing effectiveness and vaccination rates. In all scenarios, the effect of contact tracing on COVID-19 incidence persisted for both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases. CONCLUSIONS: While vaccines are progressively rolled out, efficient contact tracing must be rapidly implemented concurrently to reach, find, test, isolate and support the affected populations to bring COVID-19 under control.
BACKGROUND: The computer simulation presented in this study aimed to investigate the effect of contact tracing on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and infection in the context of rising vaccination rates. METHODS: This study proposed a deterministic, compartmental model with contact tracing and vaccination components. We defined contact tracing effectiveness as the proportion of contacts of a positive case that was successfully traced and the vaccination rate as the proportion of daily doses administered per population in Malaysia. Sensitivity analyses on the untraced and infectious populations were conducted. RESULTS: At a vaccination rate of 1.4%, contact tracing with an effectiveness of 70% could delay the peak of untraced asymptomatic cases by 17 d and reduce it by 70% compared with 30% contact tracing effectiveness. A similar trend was observed for symptomatic cases when a similar experiment setting was used. We also performed sensitivity analyses by using different combinations of contact tracing effectiveness and vaccination rates. In all scenarios, the effect of contact tracing on COVID-19 incidence persisted for both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases. CONCLUSIONS: While vaccines are progressively rolled out, efficient contact tracing must be rapidly implemented concurrently to reach, find, test, isolate and support the affected populations to bring COVID-19 under control.
Authors: Po Ying Chia; Sean Wei Xiang Ong; Calvin J Chiew; Li Wei Ang; Jean-Marc Chavatte; Tze-Minn Mak; Lin Cui; Shirin Kalimuddin; Wan Ni Chia; Chee Wah Tan; Louis Yi Ann Chai; Seow Yen Tan; Shuwei Zheng; Raymond Tzer Pin Lin; Linfa Wang; Yee-Sin Leo; Vernon J Lee; David Chien Lye; Barnaby Edward Young Journal: Clin Microbiol Infect Date: 2021-11-23 Impact factor: 8.067
Authors: Jamie Lopez Bernal; Nick Andrews; Charlotte Gower; Eileen Gallagher; Ruth Simmons; Simon Thelwall; Julia Stowe; Elise Tessier; Natalie Groves; Gavin Dabrera; Richard Myers; Colin N J Campbell; Gayatri Amirthalingam; Matt Edmunds; Maria Zambon; Kevin E Brown; Susan Hopkins; Meera Chand; Mary Ramsay Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2021-07-21 Impact factor: 91.245