Ali Rafei1, Michael R Elliott2, Rebecca E Jones3, Fernando Riosmena4, Solveig A Cunningham3, Neil K Mehta5. 1. Survey Methodology Program, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. 2. Survey Methodology Program, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. 3. Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia. 4. Population Program, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado; The Geography Department, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado. 5. Department of Preventive Medicine and Population Health, The University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas. Electronic address: nemehta@utmb.edu.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Obesity prevalence among children and adolescents has risen sharply, yet there is a limited understanding of the age-specific dynamics of obesity as there is no single nationally representative cohort following children into young adulthood. Investigators constructed a pooled data set of 5 nationally representative panels and modeled age-specific obesity incidence from childhood into young adulthood. METHODS: This longitudinal prospective follow-up used 718,560 person-years of observation in a pooled data set of 5 high-quality nationally representative panels-National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and 1997, National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, and Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten cohorts of 1998 and 2011-constructed by the authors, covering 1980-2016. Differences in obesity incidence across birth cohorts and disparities in obesity incidence by sex and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White) were tested in multivariate models. Data were analyzed from September 2018 to October 2021. RESULTS: Obesity incidence increased by approximately 6% for each 1 year of age (hazard ratio=1.06, 95% CI=1.05, 1.07); however, incidence was nonlinear, exhibiting an inverted "U"-shaped pattern before 15 years of age and then rising from adolescence through 30 years. Obesity incidence more than doubled between the cohorts born in 1957-1965 and those born in 1974-1985 during adolescence. There was no significant change among those born in 1991-1994 and 2003-2006 up to age 15 years. Compared with non-Hispanic White children, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic children had higher obesity incidence in all study cohorts. The magnitude of these disparities on the relative scale remained stable throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Although many children become obese before the age of 10, obesity incidence rises from about 15 years into early adulthood, suggesting that interventions are required at multiple developmental stages.
INTRODUCTION: Obesity prevalence among children and adolescents has risen sharply, yet there is a limited understanding of the age-specific dynamics of obesity as there is no single nationally representative cohort following children into young adulthood. Investigators constructed a pooled data set of 5 nationally representative panels and modeled age-specific obesity incidence from childhood into young adulthood. METHODS: This longitudinal prospective follow-up used 718,560 person-years of observation in a pooled data set of 5 high-quality nationally representative panels-National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and 1997, National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, and Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten cohorts of 1998 and 2011-constructed by the authors, covering 1980-2016. Differences in obesity incidence across birth cohorts and disparities in obesity incidence by sex and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White) were tested in multivariate models. Data were analyzed from September 2018 to October 2021. RESULTS: Obesity incidence increased by approximately 6% for each 1 year of age (hazard ratio=1.06, 95% CI=1.05, 1.07); however, incidence was nonlinear, exhibiting an inverted "U"-shaped pattern before 15 years of age and then rising from adolescence through 30 years. Obesity incidence more than doubled between the cohorts born in 1957-1965 and those born in 1974-1985 during adolescence. There was no significant change among those born in 1991-1994 and 2003-2006 up to age 15 years. Compared with non-Hispanic White children, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic children had higher obesity incidence in all study cohorts. The magnitude of these disparities on the relative scale remained stable throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Although many children become obese before the age of 10, obesity incidence rises from about 15 years into early adulthood, suggesting that interventions are required at multiple developmental stages.
Authors: Kathleen Mullan Harris; Carolyn Tucker Halpern; Eric A Whitsel; Jon M Hussey; Ley A Killeya-Jones; Joyce Tabor; Sarah C Dean Journal: Int J Epidemiol Date: 2019-10-01 Impact factor: 7.196
Authors: Juhee Kim; Aviva Must; Garrett M Fitzmaurice; Matthew W Gillman; Virginia Chomitz; Ellen Kramer; Robert McGowan; Karen E Peterson Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2005-07-28 Impact factor: 9.308
Authors: R J Kuczmarski; C L Ogden; L M Grummer-Strawn; K M Flegal; S S Guo; R Wei; Z Mei; L R Curtin; A F Roche; C L Johnson Journal: Adv Data Date: 2000-06-08
Authors: Neil K Mehta; Sari Stenholm; Irma T Elo; Arpo Aromaa; Markku Heliövaara; Seppo Koskinen Journal: Epidemiology Date: 2014-09 Impact factor: 4.822
Authors: Jean Rankin; Lynsay Matthews; Stephen Cobley; Ahreum Han; Ross Sanders; Huw D Wiltshire; Julien S Baker Journal: Adolesc Health Med Ther Date: 2016-11-14