Pranav I Warman1, Andreas Seas1, Nihal Satyadev1, Syed M Adil1,2, Brad J Kolls1,3, Michael M Haglund1,2, Timothy W Dunn1,4, Anthony T Fuller1,2. 1. Division of Global Neurosurgery and Neurology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA. 2. Department of Neurosurgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA. 3. Department of Neurology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA. 4. Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke Pratt School of Engineering, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) holds promise as a tool to guide clinical decision making by predicting in-hospital mortality for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Previous models such as the international mission for prognosis and clinical trials in TBI (IMPACT) and the corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH) prognosis calculators can potentially be improved with expanded clinical features and newer ML approaches. OBJECTIVE: To develop ML models to predict in-hospital mortality for both the high-income country (HIC) and the low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. METHODS: We used the Duke University Medical Center National Trauma Data Bank and Mulago National Referral Hospital (MNRH) registry to predict in-hospital mortality for the HIC and LMIC settings, respectively. Six ML models were built on each data set, and the best model was chosen through nested cross-validation. The CRASH and IMPACT models were externally validated on the MNRH database. RESULTS: ML models built on National Trauma Data Bank (n = 5393, 84 predictors) demonstrated an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.97) while models constructed on MNRH (n = 877, 31 predictors) demonstrated an AUROC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.81-0.97). Direct comparison with CRASH and IMPACT models showed significant improvement of the proposed LMIC models regarding AUROC (P = .038). CONCLUSION: We developed high-performing well-calibrated ML models for predicting in-hospital mortality for both the HIC and LMIC settings that have the potential to influence clinical management and traumatic brain injury patient trajectories.
BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) holds promise as a tool to guide clinical decision making by predicting in-hospital mortality for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Previous models such as the international mission for prognosis and clinical trials in TBI (IMPACT) and the corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH) prognosis calculators can potentially be improved with expanded clinical features and newer ML approaches. OBJECTIVE: To develop ML models to predict in-hospital mortality for both the high-income country (HIC) and the low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. METHODS: We used the Duke University Medical Center National Trauma Data Bank and Mulago National Referral Hospital (MNRH) registry to predict in-hospital mortality for the HIC and LMIC settings, respectively. Six ML models were built on each data set, and the best model was chosen through nested cross-validation. The CRASH and IMPACT models were externally validated on the MNRH database. RESULTS: ML models built on National Trauma Data Bank (n = 5393, 84 predictors) demonstrated an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.97) while models constructed on MNRH (n = 877, 31 predictors) demonstrated an AUROC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.81-0.97). Direct comparison with CRASH and IMPACT models showed significant improvement of the proposed LMIC models regarding AUROC (P = .038). CONCLUSION: We developed high-performing well-calibrated ML models for predicting in-hospital mortality for both the HIC and LMIC settings that have the potential to influence clinical management and traumatic brain injury patient trajectories.
Authors: Mitch R Paro; William Lambert; Nathan K Leclair; Petronella Stoltz; Jonathan E Martin; David S Hersh; Markus J Bookland Journal: World Neurosurg Date: 2022-04-21 Impact factor: 2.210