| Literature DB >> 35233717 |
Stanley D T Pham1,2, Hanneke M Keijzer1,3, Barry J Ruijter2, Antje A Seeber4, Erik Scholten5, Gea Drost6, Walter M van den Bergh7, Francois H M Kornips8, Norbert A Foudraine9, Albertus Beishuizen10, Michiel J Blans11, Jeannette Hofmeijer1,2, Michel J A M van Putten2,12, Marleen C Tjepkema-Cloostermans13,14.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: To compare three computer-assisted quantitative electroencephalography (EEG) prediction models for the outcome prediction of comatose patients after cardiac arrest regarding predictive performance and robustness to artifacts.Entities:
Keywords: Brain hypoxia; Cardiac arrest; Deep neural networks; Electroencephalography; Machine learning; Prognosis
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35233717 PMCID: PMC9343315 DOI: 10.1007/s12028-022-01449-8
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Neurocrit Care ISSN: 1541-6933 Impact factor: 3.532
Fig. 1An overview of the automatic electroencephalogram (EEG) prediction models used in this study. The inputs of the respective models are shown on the left side and the outputs are shown on the right. The logistic regression model used two quantitative features as input and outputted the probability of good outcome by using a regression model with constants optimized during training. The random forest model used nine quantitative features for 30 10-s EEG segments as inputs and operated by using an ensemble of random independent decision trees to generate a probability of good outcome for all 30 segments. The convolutional neural network used raw 10-s segments of EEG as the input and performed feature extraction and classification by using convolutional filters. The output of the neural network was the probability of good outcome for all 30 segments
Patient characteristics and medication use in patients with good and poor outcomes
| Characteristics | Good Outcome ( | Poor Outcome ( |
|---|---|---|
| Female sex, | 80 (20) | 129 (27) |
| Age, mean ± SD (year) | 60 ± 12 | 65 ± 14 |
| Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, | 367 (93) | 430 (90) |
| Shockable rhythm, | 359 (91) | 267 (56) |
| Primary cardiac cause, | 353 (90) | 326 (68) |
| Targeted temperature management, | 370 (94) | 426 (89) |
| Treated with propofol, | 334 (85) | 385 (81) |
| Max propofol rate, mean ± SD (mg/kg/h) | 3.2 ± 1.2 | 2.8 ± 1.1 |
| Treated with midazolam, | 108 (27) | 121 (25) |
| Max midazolam rate, mean ± SD (µg/kg/h) | 116 ± 70 | 126 ± 91 |
| Treated with fentanyl, | 154 (39) | 204 (43) |
| Max fentanyl rate, mean ± SD (µg/kg/h) | 1.6 ± 0.8 | 1.5 ± 0.8 |
| Treated with remifentanil, | 21 (5) | 33 (7) |
| Max remifentanil rate, mean ± SD (µg/kg/h) | 7.2 ± 4.4 | 4.4 ± 3.1 |
| Treated with morphine, | 185 (47) | 175 (37) |
| Max morphine rate, mean ± SD (µg/kg/h) | 26 ± 11 | 29 ± 17 |
| Treated with sevoflurane, | 21 (5) | 30 (6) |
| End-tidal volume %, mean ± SD | 1.4 ± 0.3 | 1.3 ± 0.3 |
| Somatosensory evoked potential performed, | 42 (11) | 268 (56) |
| N20 bilaterally absent, | 0 (0) | 121 (25) |
SD, standard deviation
Fig. 2Examples of 10-s electroencephalogram (EEG) segments of three different patients at 12 and 24 h after cardiac arrest. The probability of good outcome predicted by the logistic regression model, random forest model, and convolutional neural network are shown below each panel. The colors denote the prediction of good (green), uncertain (orange), or poor (red) outcome of all models. Top: EEG segments of a patient with synchronous patterns at suppressed background, with very low probabilities of good outcome. This patient, indeed, had a poor neurologic outcome (Cerebral Performance Category [CPC] = 5). Middle: EEG segments of a patient with a discontinuous background pattern. At 12 h after cardiac arrest, all three models predicted an uncertain outcome. At 24 h after cardiac arrest, the logistic regression and random forest model still predicted an uncertain outcome, wheras the convolutional neural network correctly predicted a good outcome. This patient had a good neurologic outcome (CPC = 2). Bottom: EEG segments of a patient with early return to a continuous background pattern, with high probabilities of good outcome. This patient had a good neurologic outcome (CPC = 1)
Fig. 3Average receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the logistic regression model (yellow), random forest model (red), and convolutional neural network (blue). For the internal validation, ROC curves with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) are shown for all models at 12 (a) and 24 (c) hours after cardiac arrest. For the external test, ROC curves with corresponding 95% CIs are shown for all models at 12 (b) and 24 (d) hours after cardiac arrest. The solid red and green circles indicate the chosen thresholds in the training set for the prediction of poor and good outcomes, respectively. AUC = area under the curve
Predictive values of the prediction algorithms, including 95% CIs, for the prediction of good and poor outcome at 12 and 24 h after cardiac arrest for the internal and external validation tests
| Parameter | Internal validation | External validation | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logistic regression | Random forest | Convolutional neural network | Logistic regression | Random forest | Convolutional neural network | |
| Predictive threshold for > 90% specificity at 12 h | 0.79 | 0.91 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.91 | 0.62 |
| Sensitivity at 12 h in % (CI) | 51 (32 to 70) | 51 (10 to 92) | 67 (34 to 100) | 83 (83 to 83) | 1 (0 to 4) | 78 (52 to 100) |
| FPR at 12 h in % (CI) | 9 (0 to 19) | 12 (0 to 29) | 13 (0 to 29) | 3 (3 to 3) | 0 (0 to 0) | 12 (0 to 24) |
| Predictive threshold for > 90% specificity at 24 h | 0.71 | 0.94 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 0.62 |
| Sensitivity at 24 h in % (CI) | 56 (39 to 73) | 48 (20 to 75) | 71 (59 to 83) | 66 (55 to 76) | 0 (0 to 0) | 81 (72 to 90) |
| FPR at 24 h in % (CI) | 10 (0 to 21) | 14 (8 to 20) | 14 (3 to 25) | 17 (12 to 22) | 0 (0 to 0) | 22 (14 to 30) |
| Predictive threshold for > 99% specificity at 12 h | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Sensitivity at 12 h in % (CI) | 51 (30 to 72) | 28 (0 to 63) | 49 (18 to 81) | 75 (75 to 75) | 56 (31 to 81) | 57 (43 to 71) |
| FPR at 12 h in % (CI) | 1 (0 to 5) | 4 (0 to 16) | 1 (0 to 4) | 3 (3 to 3) | 3 (3 to 3) | 3 (3 to 3) |
| Predictive threshold for > 99% specificity at 24 h | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Sensitivity at 24 h in % (CI) | 40 (24 to 55) | 15 (5 to 24) | 55 (34 to 76) | 33 (33 to 33) | 13 (0 to 50) | 54 (44 to 64) |
| FPR at 24 h in % (CI) | 1 (0 to 4) | 3 (0 to 9) | 2 (0 to 9) | 0 (0 to 0) | 0 (0 to 2) | 0 (0 to 2) |
CI, Confidence interval, FPR, false positive rate
Fig. 4Area under the curve for the outcome prediction over a 4–72 h time period after cardiac arrest on the internal validation set (a) and the external test set (b)
Fig. 5Average receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the logistic regression model at 12 h (a) and 24 h (b) after cardiac arrest, the random forest model at 12 h (c) and 24 h (d) after cardiac arrest, and convolutional neural network at 12 h (e) and 24 h (f) after cardiac arrest. For every model, the ROC curves are shown for a baseline electroencephalogram (EEG) (solid line), EEGs without artifact rejection (dashed line), EEGs with flat channels (dotted line), and EEGs with additional Gaussian white noise (dash-dotted line). The convolutional neural network showed the best robustness to artifacts. AUC = area under the curve