Literature DB >> 35173342

Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire.

John T Abatzoglou1, Maxwell B Joseph2,3, Michael J Koontz2, Adam L Mahood2,4, Joseph McGlinchy2,5, Jennifer K Balch6,7, Megan E Cattau8, A Park Williams9,10.   

Abstract

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions1,2, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPDt), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPDt-increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires.
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

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Year:  2022        PMID: 35173342     DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-04325-1

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Nature        ISSN: 0028-0836            Impact factor:   49.962


  12 in total

1.  Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999.

Authors:  Ramakrishna R Nemani; Charles D Keeling; Hirofumi Hashimoto; William M Jolly; Stephen C Piper; Compton J Tucker; Ranga B Myneni; Steven W Running
Journal:  Science       Date:  2003-06-06       Impact factor: 47.728

2.  A human-driven decline in global burned area.

Authors:  N Andela; D C Morton; L Giglio; Y Chen; G R van der Werf; P S Kasibhatla; R S DeFries; G J Collatz; S Hantson; S Kloster; D Bachelet; M Forrest; G Lasslop; F Li; S Mangeon; J R Melton; C Yue; J T Randerson
Journal:  Science       Date:  2017-06-30       Impact factor: 47.728

3.  Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests.

Authors:  Michael J Koontz; Malcolm P North; Chhaya M Werner; Stephen E Fick; Andrew M Latimer
Journal:  Ecol Lett       Date:  2020-01-10       Impact factor: 9.492

4.  Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

Authors:  John T Abatzoglou; A Park Williams
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2016-10-10       Impact factor: 12.779

5.  Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013.

Authors:  W Matt Jolly; Mark A Cochrane; Patrick H Freeborn; Zachary A Holden; Timothy J Brown; Grant J Williamson; David M J S Bowman
Journal:  Nat Commun       Date:  2015-07-14       Impact factor: 14.919

6.  The collection 6 MODIS active fire detection algorithm and fire products.

Authors:  Louis Giglio; Wilfrid Schroeder; Christopher O Justice
Journal:  Remote Sens Environ       Date:  2016-03-11       Impact factor: 10.164

7.  The Collection 6 MODIS burned area mapping algorithm and product.

Authors:  Louis Giglio; Luigi Boschetti; David P Roy; Michael L Humber; Christopher O Justice
Journal:  Remote Sens Environ       Date:  2018-08-12       Impact factor: 10.164

8.  Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

Authors:  Meg A Krawchuk; Max A Moritz; Marc-André Parisien; Jeff Van Dorn; Katharine Hayhoe
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2009-04-08       Impact factor: 3.240

9.  A Recent Systematic Increase in Vapor Pressure Deficit over Tropical South America.

Authors:  Armineh Barkhordarian; Sassan S Saatchi; Ali Behrangi; Paul C Loikith; Carlos R Mechoso
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2019-10-25       Impact factor: 4.379

10.  Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon.

Authors:  J M C Pereira; C C Da Camara; R Libonati; L F Peres; D Oom; J A Rodrigues; F L M Santos; R M Trigo; C M P Gouveia; F Machado-Silva; A Enrich-Prast; J M N Silva
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2021-02-23       Impact factor: 4.379

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