The bone strain index predicts fragility fractures. The OFELY study.

Recently, the bone strain index (BSI), a new index of bone strength based on a finite element model (FEA) from dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been developed. BSI represents the average equivalent strain inside the bone, assuming that a higher strain level (high BSI) indicates a condition of higher risk. Our study aimed to analyze the relationship between BSI and age, BMI and areal BMD in pre- and postmenopausal women and to prospectively investigate fracture prediction (Fx) by BSI in postmenopausal women. Methods. At the 14th annual follow-up of the OFELY study, BSI was measured at spine (Spine BSI) and femoral scans (Neck and Total Hip BSI), in addition to areal BMD with DXA (Hologic QDR 4500) in 846 women, mean (SD) age 60 yr (15). The FRAX® (fracture risk assessment tool) for major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) was calculated with FN areal BMD (aBMD) at baseline; incident fragility fractures were annually registered until January 2016. Results. In premenopausal women (n = 261), Neck and Total Hip BSI were slightly negatively correlated with age (Spearman r = -0.13 and -0.15 respectively, p = 0.03), whereas all BSIs were positively correlated with BMI (r = +0.20 to 0.37, p < 0.01) and negatively with BMD (r = -0.69 to -0.37, p < 0.0001). In postmenopausal women (n = 585), Neck and Total Hip BSI were positively correlated with age (Spearman r = +0.26 and +0.31 respectively, p < 0.0001), whereas Spine BSI was positively correlated with BMI (r = +0.22, p < 0.0001) and all BSIs were negatively correlated with BMD (r = -0.81 to -0.60, p < 0.0001). During a median [IQ] 9.3 [1.0] years of follow-up, 133 postmenopausal women reported an incident fragility Fx, including 80 women with a major osteoporotic Fx (MOF) and 26 women with clinical vertebral Fx (VFx). Each SD increase of BSI value was associated with a significant increase of the risk of all fragility Fx with an age-adjusted HR of 1.23 for Neck BSI (p = 0.02); 1.27 for Total Hip BSI (p = 0.004) and 1.35 for Spine BSI (p < 0.0001). After adjustment for FRAX®, the association remained statistically significant for Total Hip BSI (HR 1.24, p = 0.02 for all fragility Fx; 1.31, p = 0.01 for MOF) and Spine BSI (HR 1.33, p < 0.0001 for all fragility Fx; 1.33, p = 0.005 for MOF; 1.67, p = 0.002 for clinical VFx). In conclusion, spine and femur BSI, an FEA DXA derived index, predict incident fragility fracture in postmenopausal women, regardless of FRAX®.