| Literature DB >> 35119025 |
Guodong Yang1, Zhao Mu1, Ke Pu1, Yulin Chen1, Luoyao Zhang1, Haiyue Zhou1, Peng Luo1, Xiaoying Zhang2.
Abstract
ABSTRACT: Currently, endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) has gradually become the diagnosis and treatment of choice for initial esophageal cancer. However, the formation of esophageal stricture after ESD is one of its important complications. In this paper, we intend to identify the risk factors of esophageal stricture to develop a nomogram model to predict the risk of esophageal stricture and validate this model.A total, 159 patients were included in this study, including 21 patients with esophageal stenosis. Multivariate analysis showed that age greater than 60 years, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, the extent of esophageal mucosal defect greater than 1/2, and postoperative pathological type of early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were independent risk factors for predicting esophageal stricture. We constructed a nomogram model to predict esophageal stenosis by these 4 independent predictors.The prediction performance of the model was verified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.889, and the sensitivity and specificity were 80.00% and 91.28%, respectively, indicating that the prediction performance of the model was good; The calibration curve constructed by internal cross-validation suggested that the predicted results of the nomogram agreed well with the actual observed values.The nomogram model has a high accuracy for predicting esophageal stricture after esophageal ESD and is extremely important to reduce or avoid the occurrence of esophageal stricture. But it needs more external and prospective validation.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35119025 PMCID: PMC8812639 DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000028741
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) ISSN: 0025-7974 Impact factor: 1.889
Baseline characteristics of the patients.
| Postoperative stricture | No postoperative stricture | ||
| Number | 21 | 138 | |
| Sex, male/female, n | 12/9 | 79/59 | .993 |
| Age, n | |||
| >60 | 2 | 47 | .038 |
| ≤60 | 19 | 91 | |
| Family history, n | 3 | 9 | .222 |
| Smoke, n | 9 | 46 | .395 |
| Drink, n | 4 | 25 | .940 |
| Complications, n | |||
| Hypertension | 3 | 22 | .846 |
| Diabetes | 1 | 8 | .849 |
| Lesion location, n | .454 | ||
| Upper | 4 | 14 | |
| Middle | 15 | 104 | |
| Lower | 2 | 20 | |
| NLR, n | .004 | ||
| ≤2.283 | 3 | 72 | |
| >2.283 | 18 | 66 | |
| PLR, n | .211 | ||
| ≤102.41 | 8 | 73 | |
| >102.41 | 13 | 65 | |
| LMR, n | .937 | ||
| ≤4 | 11 | 71 | |
| >4 | 10 | 67 | |
| Longitudinal length, mean ± SD, cm | 5.014 ± 1.492 | 3.471 ± 1.649 | .001 |
| Transverse diameter, mean ± SD, cm | 3.171 ± 0.89 | 2.317 ± 1.143 | .01 |
| CRMD, n | .003 | ||
| <1/4 | 0 | 20 | |
| 1/4∼1/2 | 4 | 78 | |
| 1/2∼3 /4 | 9 | 27 | |
| >3/4 | 8 | 13 | |
| En bloc resection, n | 17 | 120 | .638 |
| Steroid, n | 13 | 35 | .001 |
| PPT, n | .013 | ||
| LGIN | 3 | 41 | |
| HGIN | 7 | 68 | |
| ESCC | 11 | 29 | |
| Depth of infiltration, n | .027 | ||
| <m2 | 12 | 110 | |
| ≥m2 | 9 | 28 | |
CRMD = the circumferential ratio of the mucosal defect, ESCC = esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, HGIN = high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, LGIN = low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, LMR = lympho-monocyte ratio, MLR = monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, NLR = neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, PLR = platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, PPT = postoperative pathological type.
Multivariate logistic regression model.
| Variables | OR | 95% CI | |
| Age | |||
| ≤60 | 1 | ||
| >60 | 11.562 | 1.468∼91.054 | .02 |
| NLR | |||
| ≤2.283 | 1 | ||
| >2.283 | 9.876 | 2.227∼43.788 | .003 |
| Longitudinal length | 1.12 | 0.701∼1.790 | .635 |
| Transverse diameter | 1.354 | 0.679∼2.698 | .389 |
| Steroid | |||
| No | 1 | ||
| Yes | 1.071 | 0.24∼4.785 | .929 |
| CRMD | |||
| ≤1/2 | 1 | ||
| >1/2 | 6.622 | 1.227∼35.732 | .028 |
| PPT | |||
| SIN | 1 | ||
| ESCC | 6.423 | 1.033∼39.95 | .046 |
| Depth of infiltration | |||
| <m2 | 1 | ||
| ≥m2 | 3.033 | 0.457∼20.146 | .251 |
CI = confidence interval, CRMD = the circumferential ratio of the mucosal defect, ESCC = esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, NLR = neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, OR = odds ratio, PPT = postoperative pathological type, SIN = squamous intraepithelial neoplasia.
Figure 1Forest plot of each predictor. The left column lists the names of the predictors. The OR for each of these studies is represented by a square, and CIs are represented by horizontal lines. CI = confidence interval, CRMD = the circumferential ratio of the mucosal defect, ESCC = esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, OR = odds ratio, NLR = neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, PPT = postoperative pathological type, SIN = squamous intraepithelial neoplasia.
Figure 2Risk-prediction nomogram for patients with postoperative esophageal ESD. CRMD = the circumferential ratio of the mucosal defect, ESCC = esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, NLR = neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, PPT = postoperative pathological type.
Figure 3ROC curve for validating the discrimination power of the nomogram. ROC = receiver operating characteristic curve.
Figure 4The calibration curve for the test accuracy of the nomogram.