Development of a data-assimilation system to forecast agricultural systems: A case study of constraining soil water and soil nitrogen dynamics in the APSIM model.

As we face today's large-scale agricultural issues, the need for robust methods of agricultural forecasting has never been clearer. Yet, the accuracy and precision of our forecasts remains limited by current tools and methods. To overcome the limitations of process-based models and observed data, we iteratively designed and tested a generalizable and robust data-assimilation system that systematically constrains state variables in the APSIM model to improve forecast accuracy and precision. Our final novel system utilizes the Ensemble Kalman Filter to constrain model states and update model parameters at observed time steps and incorporates an algorithm that improves system performance through the joint estimation of system error matrices. We tested this system at the Energy Farm, a well-monitored research site in central Illinois, where we assimilated observed in situ soil moisture at daily time steps for two years and evaluated how assimilation impacted model forecasts of soil moisture, yield, leaf area index, tile flow, and nitrate leaching by comparing estimates with in situ observations. The system improved the accuracy and precision of soil moisture estimates for the assimilation layers by an average of 42% and 48%, respectively, when compared to the free model. Such improvements led to changes in the model's soil water and nitrogen processes and, on average, increased accuracy in forecasts of annual tile flow by 43% and annual nitrate loads by 10%. Forecasts of aboveground measures did not dramatically change with assimilation, a fact which highlights the limited potential of soil moisture as a constraint for a site with no water stress. Extending the scope of previous work, our results demonstrate the power of data assimilation to constrain important model estimates beyond the assimilated state variable, such as nitrate leaching. Replication of this study is necessary to further define the limitations and opportunities of the developed system.