The epidemiology of childhood eczema: II. Statistical analyses to identify independent early predictors.

Amongst a nationally representative sample of singletons born in one week of April 1970 for whom information was available, 12.3% were reported by their mothers as having developed eczema at some time before their fifth birthday. Data from both the birth and the five-year follow-up surveys have been analysed to identify the independent early predictors of this (reported) condition in 11,920 children. Using an initial set of possible predictors suggested by previous analyses of these data, the dominant risk characteristics have been identified as: a positive maternal history of eczema; a positive maternal history of asthma or hay fever; higher parental educational qualifications and the mother originating from the West Indies or Africa. There were also increased risks for children of mothers born in England (relative to the rest of the United Kingdom) and for children of mothers who used contraceptives in the 18 months prior to the index pregnancy. There was no protective effect of breast-feeding even among children whose mothers had a history of allergy.