Quantification of ecosystem services supply-demand and the impact of demographic change on cultural services in Shenzhen, China.

Previous studies on the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) mainly focused on inter-annual changes, and no studies have explored the impact of demographic change on the ES supply and demand on fine-grained time scales. Thus, taking Shenzhen as an example, the status of ES supply and demand, as well as diurnal population changes and their impacts on cultural services were analyzed at different time periods using mobile phone signaling data, ecological supply-demand ratio (ESDR), Geo-Informatic Tupu, InVEST model and buffer zone. The results showed that the population declines successively on workdays, weekends and holidays, and that the daytime population is greater than the nighttime. Water yield services can basically meet the demand in terms of quantity and spatial distribution, however, carbon sequestration and cultural services showed the opposite results. The main type of ESDR changes in cultural services are the mutual conversion of deficit and balance, and these are concentrated in areas with high forest coverage and small populations, but frequent population changes. In addition, when the fixed population is too large, the use of time-varying population data will conceal the impact of demographic changes on ES supply and demand, and other data are needed for auxiliary analysis. Overall, this study provides a new research perspective for the ES supply and demand and can provide a theoretical basis for refined sustainable urban management.