| Literature DB >> 34976912 |
Xiangyu Yan1, Xuechun Wang1, Xiangyu Zhang1, Lei Wang2, Bo Zhang1, Zhongwei Jia1,3,4.
Abstract
Background: Prevention and control of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are major public health priorities in China, but are influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively explore the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and its control measures on five major STD epidemics in China.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; HIV/AIDS; epidemic; gonorrhea; hepatitis; sexually transmitted diseases; syphilis
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34976912 PMCID: PMC8716580 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.737817
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Public Health ISSN: 2296-2565
Figure 1Autoregressive integrated moving average model fitting and prediction of the newly reported case number of five STDs. (A) HIV/AIDS. (B) Hepatitis B. (C) Hepatitis C. (D) Gonorrhea. (E) Syphilis.
Parameters and goodness-of-fit of the five STDs' optimal ARIMA models.
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| AIDS | ARIMA(1,0,1) × | 489.07 | 9.04 | 1668.14 | 1681.55 | 0.010 | 0.92 |
| Hepatitis B | ARIMA(3,1,0) × (2,1,0)12 | 5447.44 | 3.62 | 2179.39 | 2195.43 | 0.000 | 0.99 |
| Hepatitis C | ARIMA(3,1,0) × (2,1,2)12 | 1031.85 | 3.82 | 1842.22 | 1863.6 | 0.005 | 0.94 |
| Gonorrhea | ARIMA(0,1,3) × (0,1,1)12 | 507.16 | 3.91 | 1673.12 | 1686.48 | <0.001 | 0.98 |
| Syphilis | ARIMA(2,1,2) × (0,1,1)12 | 1794.99 | 3.39 | 1950.41 | 1966.45 | 0.002 | 0.96 |
RMSE, root mean square error; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; AIC, Akaike's information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion.
* Draft was included in the model.
Each month's actual case number, predicted number, and absolute percentage error (APE) of five STDs in 2020.
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| January | 2759 | 3781.3 | −37.1 | 91026 | 106952.2 | −17.5 | 17287 | 22031.6 | −27.4 | 8254 | 9619.2 | −16.5 | 39671 | 49093.1 | −23.8 |
| February | 2133 | 3627.5 | −70.1 | 51506 | 100954.5 | −96.0 | 9068 | 18342.0 | −102.3 | 3524 | 7366.5 | −109.0 | 21448 | 42986.4 | −100.4 |
| March | 4808 | 6130.3 | −27.5 | 88150 | 122105.0 | −38.5 | 16718 | 25140.0 | −50.4 | 4661 | 9263.9 | −98.8 | 41154 | 55091.6 | −33.9 |
| April | 5960 | 5932.3 | 0.5 | 101262 | 111610.1 | −10.2 | 20179 | 23117.7 | −14.6 | 6267 | 9383.0 | −49.7 | 46728 | 53430.5 | −14.3 |
| May | 5484 | 6309.9 | −15.1 | 97651 | 112703.8 | −15.4 | 19821 | 22561.0 | −13.8 | 8104 | 10163.6 | −25.4 | 46753 | 55654.1 | −19.0 |
| June | 6915 | 6694.6 | 3.2 | 99319 | 106588.7 | −7.3 | 20367 | 21291.8 | −4.5 | 9292 | 10142.7 | −9.2 | 46538 | 54259.7 | −16.6 |
| July | 6124 | 6588.8 | −7.6 | 106135 | 111396.0 | −5.0 | 22400 | 21955.1 | 2.0 | 10621 | 11071.4 | −4.2 | 50386 | 57257.6 | −13.6 |
| August | 5166 | 6454.0 | −24.9 | 102304 | 112745.1 | −10.2 | 20520 | 21206.9 | −3.3 | 10724 | 11271.8 | −5.1 | 46838 | 56942.5 | −21.6 |
| September | 6927 | 6603.4 | 4.7 | 105377 | 104300.9 | 1.0 | 21538 | 20641.9 | 4.2 | 11643 | 10716.5 | 8.0 | 48965 | 55047.8 | −12.4 |
| October | 4546 | 6254.2 | −37.6 | 95633 | 100812.5 | −5.4 | 20067 | 19478.8 | 2.9 | 10551 | 10382.4 | 1.6 | 44438 | 52621.0 | −18.4 |
| November | 5824 | 7635.7 | −31.1 | 100561 | 107473.1 | −6.9 | 20801 | 21022.6 | −1.1 | 11260 | 10761.5 | 4.4 | 45305 | 53374.2 | −17.8 |
| December | 6508 | 7451.9 | −14.5 | 100209 | 106030.0 | −5.8 | 20438 | 21513.8 | −5.3 | 11691 | 10796.4 | 7.7 | 44696 | 52176.5 | −16.7 |
Figure 2Trends of COVID-19 case numbers and scores of seven COVID-19 control measures in 2020. (A) Confirmed COVID-19 cases. (B) School closing. (C) Workplace closing. (D) Cancel public events. (E) Restrictions on gathering size. (F) Close public transport. (G) Stay at home requirements. (H) Restrictions on internal movement.
Figure 3Lockdown period of different provinces in China.
The correlation coefficients (r) of COVID-19 case numbers and control measures with the case numbers and the APEs of five STDs in 2020.
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| Number of COVID-19 cases | −0.72 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.46 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −0.46 | −0.32 | −0.92 | −0.89 | −0.55 | −0.45 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.95 | −0.98 | −0.65 | −0.38 |
| School closing | −0.28 | −0.32 | 0.15 | 0.17 | −0.63 | −0.74 | −0.31 | −0.67 | −0.64 | −0.75 | −0.35 | −0.62 | −0.84 | −0.92 | −0.76 | −0.88 | −0.56 | −0.65 | −0.08 | −0.46 |
| Workplace closing | −0.17 | −0.17 | 0.32 | 0.42 | −0.58 | −0.69 | −0.14 | −0.50 | −0.57 | −0.68 | −0.15 | −0.45 | −0.82 | −0.84 | −0.72 | −0.75 | −0.48 | −0.60 | 0.14 | −0.22 |
| Cancel public events | −0.10 | −0.20 | 0.42 | 0.35 | −0.54 | −0.66 | −0.06 | −0.45 | −0.53 | −0.63 | −0.07 | −0.36 | −0.78 | −0.79 | −0.56 | −0.68 | −0.45 | −0.59 | 0.19 | −0.24 |
| Restrictions on gathering size | −0.35 | −0.42 | 0.19 | 0.16 | −0.73 | −0.83 | −0.31 | −0.69 | −0.73 | −0.83 | −0.33 | −0.62 | −0.82 | −0.92 | −0.70 | −0.85 | −0.67 | −0.77 | −0.07 | −0.51 |
| Close public transport | −0.27 | −0.43 | 0.42 | 0.23 | −0.71 | −0.79 | −0.04 | −0.39 | −0.68 | −0.74 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.42 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.77 | 0.18 | −0.26 |
| Stay at home requirements | −0.42 | −0.53 | 0.27 | 0.14 | −0.81 | −0.89 | −0.23 | −0.59 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.23 | −0.50 | −0.76 | −0.86 | −0.57 | −0.75 | −0.76 | −0.86 | −0.02 | −0.44 |
| Restrictions on internal movement | −0.07 | −0.26 | 0.57 | 0.35 | −0.54 | −0.64 | 0.16 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.57 | 0.20 | −0.07 | −0.54 | −0.67 | −0.26 | −0.43 | −0.54 | −0.62 | 0.39 | −0.07 |
p < 0.05.
p < 0.01.
p < 0.001.