| Literature DB >> 34963685 |
Michel Brinkschulte1, Philip Furley2, Maximilian Klemp2, Daniel Memmert2.
Abstract
Scrutinizing public opinion is one of the central goals of science as the divergence between public opinion and scientific evidence can have negative consequences. The present study aims to further investigate the alleged English 'penalty curse' and determine if it can be linked to the prevalent stereotype of the 'English goalkeeper problem'. We analyzed a large sample of 2379 penalty kicks that 629 different goalkeepers faced in World Cups and European Championships, as well as in the Champions and Europa League by comparing the goalkeeper success rates of different nations by fitting a generalized linear model (binomial regression) to the data. However, the results do not reveal meaningful differences between the success rates (on average 22.23%). Consequently, we conclude that English goalkeepers are not responsible for England's poor performance in penalties in the past as they perform as well as goalkeepers from other nations and, in turn, provide a counterargument to the widespread stereotype that 'England has a goalkeeper problem'.Entities:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34963685 PMCID: PMC8714815 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-04118-6
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Coefficients for the different nationalities in the binomial regression model for all kicks taken in penalty shootouts faced by goalkeepers during World Cup and European Championship matches (123 of 473 penalty kicks were missed against 71 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time periods).
| Country | Estimate | SE | z | Odds Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other (intercept) | −1.066 | 0.161 | −6.630 | < 0.001 | 0.344 |
| England | −0.202 | 0.410 | −0.494 | 0.622 | 0.817 |
| Germany | 0.412 | 0.378 | 1.091 | 0.275 | 1.510 |
| Spain | −0.187 | 0.432 | −0.432 | 0.666 | 0.830 |
| Italy | −0.033 | 0.370 | −0.088 | 0.930 | 0.968 |
| Netherlands | −0.657 | 0.511 | −1.284 | 0.199 | 0.519 |
| Brazil | 0.961 | 0.487 | 1.973 | 2.613 | |
| Argentina | 0.624 | 0.457 | 1.367 | 0.172 | 1.867 |
| France | −0.400 | 0.481 | −0.833 | 0.405 | 0.670 |
The p values marked bold represent significant results (p < 0.05).
Coefficients for the different nationalities in the binomial regression model for all in-game penalty kicks faced by goalkeepers during World Cup and European Championship matches (48 of 237 penalty kicks were missed against 142 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time periods). In the analyzed time periods, Brazilian goalkeepers saved none of the in-game penalty kicks they faced.
| Country | Estimate | SE | z | Odds Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other (intercept) | −1.459 | 0.203 | −7.196 | < 0.001 | 0.233 |
| England | 0.206 | 0.827 | 0.249 | 0.803 | 1.229 |
| Germany | 0.360 | 0.612 | 0.588 | 0.556 | 1.433 |
| Spain | 0.948 | 0.758 | 1.251 | 0.211 | 2.580 |
| Italy | 1.053 | 0.677 | 1.557 | 0.120 | 2.867 |
| Netherlands | 0.072 | 0.816 | 0.089 | 0.929 | 1.075 |
| Brazil | −15.444 | 1419.487 | −0.011 | 0.991 | 0.000 |
| Argentina | −0.333 | 1.099 | −0.303 | 0.762 | 0.717 |
| France | −0.333 | 0.790 | −0.422 | 0.673 | 0.717 |
Figure 1Mean percentages of the goalkeeper success ratios for penalty kicks faced during World Cup and European Championship matches as a function of goalkeeper nationality and type of penalty kick. The N’s refer to the number of goalkeepers analyzed for each nation (171 of 710 penalty kicks were missed against 165 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time period). Error bars represent standard errors of the mean.
Coefficients for the different nationalities in the binomial regression model for all kicks taken in penalty shootouts faced by goalkeepers during Champions League and Europa League matches (85 of 311 penalty kicks were missed against 48 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time periods). In the analyzed time periods, no penalty kicks were taken against Argentinian goalkeepers in penalty shootouts in the Champions and Europa League.
| Country | Estimate | Std. Error | z | Odds Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other (intercept) | −1.006 | 0.213 | −4.712 | < 0.001 | 0.366 |
| England | −0.786 | 1.101 | −0.714 | 0.475 | 0.456 |
| Germany | 0.657 | 0.433 | 1.517 | 0.129 | 1.929 |
| Spain | 0.165 | 0.333 | 0.495 | 0.620 | 1.179 |
| Italy | 0.600 | 0.937 | 0.640 | 0.522 | 1.822 |
| Netherlands | −1.074 | 0.648 | −1.656 | 0.098 | 0.342 |
| Brazil | 0.067 | 0.447 | 0.150 | 0.880 | 1.070 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – |
| France | −0.198 | 0.512 | −0.388 | 0.698 | 0.820 |
Coefficients for the different nationalities in the binomial regression model for all in-game penalty kicks faced by goalkeepers during Champions League and Europa League matches (341 of 1,358 penalty kicks were missed against 512 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time periods).
| Country | Estimate | SE | z | Odds Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other (intercept) | −1.083 | 0.082 | −13.221 | < 0.001 | 0.338 |
| England | 0.524 | 0.451 | 1.162 | 0.245 | 1.688 |
| Germany | 0.228 | 0.214 | 1.342 | 0.180 | 1.333 |
| Spain | 0.040 | 0.224 | 0.179 | 0.858 | 1.041 |
| Italy | −0.359 | 0.319 | −1.125 | 0.261 | 0.698 |
| Netherlands | −0.039 | 0.318 | −0.122 | 0.903 | 0.962 |
| Brazil | −0.359 | 0.319 | −1.125 | 0.261 | 0.698 |
| Argentina | 0.139 | 0.453 | 0.307 | 0.759 | 1.149 |
| France | −0.276 | 0.270 | −1.023 | 0.306 | 0.759 |
Figure 2Mean percentages of the goalkeeper success ratios for penalty kicks faced during Champions League and Europa League matches as a function of goalkeeper nationality and type of penalty kick. The N’s refer to the number of goalkeepers analyzed for each nation (426 of 1669 penalty kicks were missed against 515 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time periods). Error bars represent standard errors of the mean.
Coefficients for the different nationalities in the binomial regression model for all penalty kicks (shootouts and in-game) faced by goalkeepers during World Cup, European Championship, Champions League, and Europa League matches (597 of 2,379 penalty kicks were missed against 629 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time periods).
| Country | Estimate | SE | z | Odds Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other (intercept) | −1.117 | 0.065 | −17.093 | < 0.001 | 0.327 |
| England | 0.035 | 0.267 | 0.131 | 0.896 | 1.035 |
| Germany | 0.394 | 0.164 | 2.406 | 1.482 | |
| Spain | 0.128 | 0.160 | 0.799 | 0.424 | 1.137 |
| Italy | −0.055 | 0.216 | −0.253 | 0.800 | 0.947 |
| Netherlands | −0.340 | 0.236 | −1.441 | 0.149 | 0.712 |
| Brazil | 0.029 | 0.218 | 0.133 | 0.895 | 1.029 |
| Argentina | 0.312 | 0.299 | 1.044 | 0.296 | 1.367 |
| France | −0.270 | 0.205 | −1.313 | 0.189 | 0.764 |
The p values marked bold represent significant results (p < 0.05).
Figure 3Mean percentages of the goalkeeper success ratios for penalty kicks faced (shootouts and in-game) during World Cup, European Championship, Champions League and Europa League matches as a function of goalkeeper nationality. The N’s refer to the number of goalkeepers analyzed for each nation (597 of 2379 penalty kicks were missed against 629 different goalkeepers in the analyzed time periods). Error bars represent standard errors of the mean.