| Literature DB >> 34956882 |
Szu-Chun Yang1,2, Natalia Kunst3,4,5, Cary P Gross4, Jung-Der Wang2, Wu-Chou Su6, Shi-Yi Wang1,4.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: First-line treatment with nivolumab plus ipilimumab (N+I) or nivolumab plus ipilimumab with two cycles of chemotherapy (N+I+chemotherapy) improve overall survival and progression-free survival for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), yet researchers have not concomitantly compared the cost-effectiveness of N+I and N+I+chemotherapy with chemotherapy alone.Entities:
Keywords: cost-effectiveness; immunotherapy; ipilimumab; nivolumab; non-small cell lung cancer
Year: 2021 PMID: 34956882 PMCID: PMC8695441 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2021.760686
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Oncol ISSN: 2234-943X Impact factor: 6.244
Input parameters for all patients.
| Parameter | Baseline value | Range | Distribution | References for baseline value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | ||||
| Transitional probabilities | Time-dependent | Estimated from the trial and extrapolated survival curves ( | |||
| Hazard ratios of N+I+chemotherapy versus chemotherapy | |||||
| PFS | 0.68 | ( | |||
| OS | 0.66 | ( | |||
| Squamous in tumor histology | 28.0% | Dirichlet (163,419) | ( | ||
| Grade 3/4 AEs incidence, N+I+chemotherapy | |||||
| Diarrhea | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | Beta (17,341) | ( |
| Rash | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | Beta (6,352) | ( |
| Fatigue | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | Beta (20,338) | ( |
| Decreased appetite | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | Beta (4,354) | ( |
| Nausea | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | Beta (12,346) | ( |
| Anemia | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | Beta (17,341) | ( |
| Neutropenia | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.3% | Beta (25,333) | ( |
| Grade 3/4 AEs incidence, N+I | |||||
| Diarrhea | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | Beta (10,566) | ( |
| Rash | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | Beta (9,567) | ( |
| Fatigue | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | Beta (10,566) | ( |
| Decreased appetite | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | Beta (4,572) | ( |
| Nausea | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | Beta (3,573) | ( |
| Anemia | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | Beta (8,568) | ( |
| Grade 3/4 AEs incidence, chemotherapy | |||||
| Diarrhea | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | Beta (4,566) | ( |
| Fatigue | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | Beta (8,562) | ( |
| Decreased appetite | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | Beta (7,563) | ( |
| Nausea | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | Beta (12,558) | ( |
| Anemia | 11.6% | 9.3% | 13.9% | Beta (66,504) | ( |
| Neutropenia | 9.5% | 7.6% | 11.4% | Beta (54,516) | ( |
| Second-line therapy proportion, N+I+chemotherapy | |||||
| Chemotherapy | 38.7% | 31.0% | 46.4% | Beta (140,221) | ( |
| Immunotherapy | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | Beta (26,335) | ( |
| Targeted therapy | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | Beta (23,338) | ( |
| Second-line therapy proportion, N+I | |||||
| Chemotherapy | 35.0% | 28.0% | 42.0% | Beta (204,379) | ( |
| Immunotherapy | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | Beta (32,551) | ( |
| Targeted therapy | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.8% | Beta (33,550) | ( |
| Second-line therapy proportion, chemotherapy | |||||
| Chemotherapy | 29.7% | 23.8% | 35.6% | Beta (173,410) | ( |
| Immunotherapy | 40.8% | 32.6% | 49.0% | Beta (238,345) | ( |
| Targeted therapy | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.0% | Beta (34,549) | ( |
| Health utility | |||||
| N+I with/without chemotherapy | 0.88 | 0.79 | 0.97 | Beta (11.0,1.5) | ( |
| Chemotherapy | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.87 | Beta (20.2,5.4) | ( |
| Progressive disease | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.79 | Beta (27.3,10.6) | ( |
| Administration cost ($) | 149 | 120 | 179 | Gamma (100,1.49) | ( |
| Drug cost per 6 weeks ($) | |||||
| Nivolumab plus ipilimumab | 29,890 | 23,912 | 35,868 | Gamma (100,298.90) | ( |
| Gemcitabine plus carboplatin | 2528 | 2022 | 3034 | Gamma (100,25.28) | ( |
| Paclitaxel plus carboplatin | 502 | 401 | 602 | Gamma (100,5.02) | ( |
| Pemetrexed plus carboplatin | 13,791 | 11,033 | 16,550 | Gamma (100,137.91) | ( |
| Docetaxel | 834 | 667 | 1001 | Gamma (100,8.34) | ( |
| Nivolumab | 18,756 | 15,005 | 22,507 | Gamma (100,187.56) | ( |
| Erlotinib | 14,350 | 11,480 | 17,220 | Gamma (100,143.50) | ( |
| Grade 3/4 AEs cost ($) | |||||
| Diarrhea | 17,668 | 14,135 | 21,202 | Gamma (100,176.68) | ( |
| Rash | 16,811 | 13,449 | 20,173 | Gamma (100,168.11) | ( |
| Fatigue | 17,320 | 13,856 | 20,784 | Gamma (100,173.20) | ( |
| Decrease appetite | 24,814 | 19,851 | 29,776 | Gamma (100,248.14) | ( |
| Nausea | 20,698 | 16,558 | 24,837 | Gamma (100,206.98) | ( |
| Anemia | 21,681 | 17,345 | 26,017 | Gamma (100,216.81) | ( |
| Neutropenia | 18,386 | 14,709 | 22,063 | Gamma (100,183.86) | ( |
| BSC cost per 6 weeks ($) | 4894 | 3915 | 5873 | Gamma (100,48.94) | ( |
Parameter values for patients with PD-L1 ≥ 1% and < 1% and sensitivity analyses based on the CheckMate 9LA trial are shown in .
All costs are expressed in 2020 dollars.
AE, adverse event; BSC, best supportive care; N+I, nivolumab plus ipilimumab; PD-L1, programmed-death ligand 1; PFS, progression-free survival; OS, overall survival.
Figure 1Comparisons between the CheckMate 227 trial and simulation, overall survival for nivolumab plus ipilimumab with two cycles of chemotherapy, nivolumab plus ipilimumab, and chemotherapy. We extrapolated the overall survival to lifetime for analyses. C/T, chemotherapy; N+I, nivolumab plus ipilimumab; PD-L1, programmed-death ligand 1.
Base-case results.
| Total cost | Life years | QALYs | ICER ($/life year) | ICER ($/QALY) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All patients | |||||
| Chemotherapy | $175,668 | 1.68 | 1.26 | – | – |
| N+I | $286,001 | 2.16 | 1.72 | 228,100 | 239,072 |
| N+I+chemotherapy | $393,488 | 2.35 | 1.85 | 595,568 | 838,198 |
| Patients with PD-L1 ≥ 1% | |||||
| Chemotherapy | $181,757 | 1.81 | 1.35 | – | – |
| N+I | $335,145 | 2.45 | 1.98 | 238,154 | 246,584 |
| N+I+chemotherapy | $408,078 | 2.59 | 2.04 | 500,896 | 1,092,784 |
| Patients with PD-L1 < 1% | |||||
| Chemotherapy | $151,861 | 1.37 | 1.03 | – | – |
| N+I | $338,905 | 2.59 | 2.03 | 152,565 | 185,620 |
| N+I+chemotherapy | $361,944 | 2.14 | 1.67 | dominated | dominated |
ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; N+I, nivolumab plus ipilimumab; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; QALY, quality-adjusted life year.
Figure 2Incremental cost-effectiveness scattered plots using simulation based on the CheckMate 227 trial. Dash lines represent the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $150,000 per QALY. N+I, nivolumab plus ipilimumab; PD-L1, programmed-death ligand 1; QALY, quality-adjusted life year.
Figure 3Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves using simulation based on the CheckMate 227 trial. Dash lines represent the willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY. N+I, nivolumab plus ipilimumab; PD-L1, programmed-death ligand 1; QALY, quality-adjusted life year.