Aleix Solanes1, Carlos Laredo2, Mar Guasp3, Miquel Angel Fullana4, Lydia Fortea5, Ignasi Garcia-Olivé6, Marco Solmi7, Jae Il Shin8, Xabier Urra3, Joaquim Radua9. 1. Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain;Department of Psychiatry and Forensic Medicine, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 2. Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain. 3. Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain;Neurosciences Unit, Hospital Clínic, Barcelona, Spain. 4. Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain;Adult Psychiatry and Psychology Department, Institute of Neurosciences, Hospital Clinic, Barcelona, Spain;Biomedical Network Research Centre on Mental Health (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain. 5. Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain;Biomedical Network Research Centre on Mental Health (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain;Department of Medicine, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 6. Department of Medicine, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain;Pneumology Department, Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain. 7. Neurosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, Italy; Padua Neuroscience Center, Padua, Italy;Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK. 8. Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea. 9. Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain;Biomedical Network Research Centre on Mental Health (CIBERSAM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain;Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK;Centre for Psychiatric Research and Education, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have shown that meteorological factors may increase COVID-19 mortality, likely due to the increased transmission of the virus. However, this could also be related to an increased infection fatality rate (IFR). We investigated the association between meteorological factors (temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, pressure, wind, precipitation, cloud coverage) and IFR across Spanish provinces ( n = 52) during the first wave of the pandemic (weeks 10-16 of 2020). METHODS: We estimated IFR as excess deaths (the gap between observed and expected deaths, considering COVID-19-unrelated deaths prevented by lockdown measures) divided by the number of infections (SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals plus excess deaths) and conducted Spearman correlations between meteorological factors and IFR across the provinces. RESULTS: We estimated 2,418,250 infections and 43,237 deaths. The IFR was 0.03% in < 50-year-old, 0.22% in 50-59-year-old, 0.9% in 60-69-year-old, 3.3% in 70-79-year-old, 12.6% in 80-89-year-old, and 26.5% in ≥ 90-year-old. We did not find statistically significant relationships between meteorological factors and adjusted IFR. However, we found strong relationships between low temperature and unadjusted IFR, likely due to Spain's colder provinces' aging population. CONCLUSION: The association between meteorological factors and adjusted COVID-19 IFR is unclear. Neglecting age differences or ignoring COVID-19-unrelated deaths may severely bias COVID-19 epidemiological analyses.
OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have shown that meteorological factors may increase COVID-19 mortality, likely due to the increased transmission of the virus. However, this could also be related to an increased infection fatality rate (IFR). We investigated the association between meteorological factors (temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, pressure, wind, precipitation, cloud coverage) and IFR across Spanish provinces ( n = 52) during the first wave of the pandemic (weeks 10-16 of 2020). METHODS: We estimated IFR as excess deaths (the gap between observed and expected deaths, considering COVID-19-unrelated deaths prevented by lockdown measures) divided by the number of infections (SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals plus excess deaths) and conducted Spearman correlations between meteorological factors and IFR across the provinces. RESULTS: We estimated 2,418,250 infections and 43,237 deaths. The IFR was 0.03% in < 50-year-old, 0.22% in 50-59-year-old, 0.9% in 60-69-year-old, 3.3% in 70-79-year-old, 12.6% in 80-89-year-old, and 26.5% in ≥ 90-year-old. We did not find statistically significant relationships between meteorological factors and adjusted IFR. However, we found strong relationships between low temperature and unadjusted IFR, likely due to Spain's colder provinces' aging population. CONCLUSION: The association between meteorological factors and adjusted COVID-19 IFR is unclear. Neglecting age differences or ignoring COVID-19-unrelated deaths may severely bias COVID-19 epidemiological analyses.
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