Clinical factors in the prediction of further haemorrhage or mortality in acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage.

Data collected prospectively from 326 admissions for acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage were examined to identify factors predicting further haemorrhage or mortality. Seven predictive factors were identified by univariate analysis for both further haemorrhage and/or mortality, but only age over 60 years, an admission haemoglobin less than 8 g/dl and the presence of endoscopic stigmata of recent haemorrhage were shown by stepwise logistic regression to have independent significance for further haemorrhage. An age over 60 years, the presence of clinical shock on admission and an episode of further haemorrhage following admission emerged as independently significant in the prediction of mortality.