BACKGROUND: Average lifetime risk for heart failure (HF) is high but differs significantly across and within sex-race groups. No models for estimating long-term risk for HF exist, which would allow for earlier identification and interventions in high-risk subsets. The authors aim to derive 30-year HF risk equations. METHODS: Adults between the ages of 20 to 59 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline from 5 population-based cohorts were included. Among 24 838 participants (55% women, 25% Black based on self-report), follow-up consisted of 599 551 person-years. Sex- and race-specific 30-year HF risk equations were derived and validated accounting for competing risk of non-HF death. HF was based on a clinical diagnosis. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. Finally, the model was applied to varying risk factor patterns for systematic examination. RESULTS: The rate of incident HF was 4.0 per 1000 person-years. Harrell C statistics were 0.82 (0.80-0.83) and 0.84 (0.82-0.85) in White and Black men and 0.84 (0.82-0.85) and 0.85 (0.83-0.87) in White and Black women, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration was acceptable, with χ2 <30 in all subgroups. Risk estimation varied across sex-race groups: for example, in an average 40-year-old nonsmoker with an untreated systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and body mass index of 30 kg/m2, risk was estimated to be 22.8% in a Black man, 13.7% in a White man, 13.0% in a Black woman, and 12.1% in a White woman. CONCLUSIONS: Sex- and race-specific equations for prediction of long-term risk of HF demonstrated high discrimination and adequate calibration.
BACKGROUND: Average lifetime risk for heart failure (HF) is high but differs significantly across and within sex-race groups. No models for estimating long-term risk for HF exist, which would allow for earlier identification and interventions in high-risk subsets. The authors aim to derive 30-year HF risk equations. METHODS: Adults between the ages of 20 to 59 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline from 5 population-based cohorts were included. Among 24 838 participants (55% women, 25% Black based on self-report), follow-up consisted of 599 551 person-years. Sex- and race-specific 30-year HF risk equations were derived and validated accounting for competing risk of non-HF death. HF was based on a clinical diagnosis. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. Finally, the model was applied to varying risk factor patterns for systematic examination. RESULTS: The rate of incident HF was 4.0 per 1000 person-years. Harrell C statistics were 0.82 (0.80-0.83) and 0.84 (0.82-0.85) in White and Black men and 0.84 (0.82-0.85) and 0.85 (0.83-0.87) in White and Black women, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration was acceptable, with χ2 <30 in all subgroups. Risk estimation varied across sex-race groups: for example, in an average 40-year-old nonsmoker with an untreated systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and body mass index of 30 kg/m2, risk was estimated to be 22.8% in a Black man, 13.7% in a White man, 13.0% in a Black woman, and 12.1% in a White woman. CONCLUSIONS: Sex- and race-specific equations for prediction of long-term risk of HF demonstrated high discrimination and adequate calibration.
Entities:
Keywords:
adult; female; humans; male; young adult
Authors: Jarett D Berry; Alan Dyer; Xuan Cai; Daniel B Garside; Hongyan Ning; Avis Thomas; Philip Greenland; Linda Van Horn; Russell P Tracy; Donald M Lloyd-Jones Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2012-01-26 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Bernard Zinman; Christoph Wanner; John M Lachin; David Fitchett; Erich Bluhmki; Stefan Hantel; Michaela Mattheus; Theresa Devins; Odd Erik Johansen; Hans J Woerle; Uli C Broedl; Silvio E Inzucchi Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2015-09-17 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Ambarish Pandey; Wally Omar; Colby Ayers; Michael LaMonte; Liviu Klein; Norrina B Allen; Lewis H Kuller; Philip Greenland; Charles B Eaton; John S Gottdiener; Donald M Lloyd-Jones; Jarett D Berry Journal: Circulation Date: 2018-01-19 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: Piotr Ponikowski; Adriaan A Voors; Stefan D Anker; Héctor Bueno; John G F Cleland; Andrew J S Coats; Volkmar Falk; José Ramón González-Juanatey; Veli-Pekka Harjola; Ewa A Jankowska; Mariell Jessup; Cecilia Linde; Petros Nihoyannopoulos; John T Parissis; Burkert Pieske; Jillian P Riley; Giuseppe M C Rosano; Luis M Ruilope; Frank Ruschitzka; Frans H Rutten; Peter van der Meer Journal: Eur Heart J Date: 2016-05-20 Impact factor: 29.983
Authors: Melanie J Davies; David A D'Alessio; Judith Fradkin; Walter N Kernan; Chantal Mathieu; Geltrude Mingrone; Peter Rossing; Apostolos Tsapas; Deborah J Wexler; John B Buse Journal: Diabetes Care Date: 2018-10-04 Impact factor: 19.112
Authors: Zachary H Hughes; Hongyan Ning; Sanjiv J Shah; Clyde W Yancy; John T Wilkins; Donald M Lloyd-Jones; Sadiya S Khan; Nilay S Shah Journal: Circ Heart Fail Date: 2022-04-04 Impact factor: 10.447