Hong Sun1, Pouya Saeedi1, Suvi Karuranga1, Moritz Pinkepank1, Katherine Ogurtsova2, Bruce B Duncan3, Caroline Stein3, Abdul Basit4, Juliana C N Chan5, Jean Claude Mbanya6, Meda E Pavkov7, Ambady Ramachandaran8, Sarah H Wild9, Steven James10, William H Herman11, Ping Zhang7, Christian Bommer12, Shihchen Kuo13, Edward J Boyko14, Dianna J Magliano15. 1. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium. 2. Institute for Health Services Research and Health Economics, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany. 3. Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil. 4. Baqai Institute of Diabetology and Endocrinology, Baqai Medical University, Karachi, Pakistan. 5. Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences and Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China. 6. Department of Internal Medicine and Specialties, Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences and Biotechnology Center, The University of Yaounde I, Yaounde, Cameroon. 7. Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States. 8. India Diabetes Research Foundation & Dr.A.Ramachandran's Diabetes Hospital, Chennai, India. 9. Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Teviot Place, EH8 9AG, Scotland. 10. School of Nursing, Midwifery and Paramedicine, University of the Sunshine Coast, Petrie Queensland, Australia. 11. Division of Metabolism, Endocrinology, and Diabetes, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States. 12. Centre for Modern Indian Studies, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany. 13. Division of Metabolism, Endocrinology, and Diabetes, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States. 14. Seattle Epidemiologic Research and Information Center, VA Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, United States. 15. Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. Electronic address: Dianna.magliano@baker.edu.au.
Abstract
AIMS: To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045. METHODS: A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence. RESULTS: The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75-79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045. CONCLUSIONS: Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world's adult population now have this condition.
AIMS: To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045. METHODS: A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence. RESULTS: The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75-79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045. CONCLUSIONS: Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world's adult population now have this condition.
Authors: G Defeudis; M Rossini; Y M Khazrai; A M V Pipicelli; G Brucoli; M Veneziano; F Strollo; A Bellia; O Bitterman; D Lauro; D Mora; E Santarelli Journal: Eat Weight Disord Date: 2022-07-01 Impact factor: 3.008
Authors: Melanie J Davies; Vanita R Aroda; Billy S Collins; Robert A Gabbay; Jennifer Green; Nisa M Maruthur; Sylvia E Rosas; Stefano Del Prato; Chantal Mathieu; Geltrude Mingrone; Peter Rossing; Tsvetalina Tankova; Apostolos Tsapas; John B Buse Journal: Diabetologia Date: 2022-09-24 Impact factor: 10.460