Foundations of Bayesian Learning in Clinical Neuroscience.

There is an increasing interest in using prediction models to forecast clinical outcomes within the fields of neurosurgery and clinical neuroscience. The present chapter outlines the foundations of Bayesian learning and introduces Bayes theorem and its use in machine learning methodology. The use of Bayesian networks to structure and define associations between outcome predictors and final outcomes is highlighted and Naïve Bayes classifiers are outlined for use in predicting neurosurgical outcomes, where the understanding of underlying causes is less important. The present work aims to orient researchers in Bayesian machine learning methods and when and how to use them. When used correctly, these tools have the potential to improve the understanding of factors influencing neurosurgical outcomes, aid in structuring the relationships between them, and provide reliable machine learning classification models for predicting neurosurgical outcomes.