Anne Bichteler1, Jennifer M Barton2, Julie C Lumeng3, Elizabeth T Gershoff1. 1. Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, University of Texas at Austin (A Bichteler and ET Gershoff), Austin, Tex. 2. Family Resiliency Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (JM Barton), Urbana, Ill. Electronic address: jmbarton@illinois.edu. 3. Department of Pediatrics, University of Michigan Medical School (JC Lumeng), Ann Arbor, Mich; Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Michigan School of Public Health (JC Lumeng), Ann Arbor, Mich.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To examine whether patterns of body mass index (BMI) percentile gains across childhood predict BMI percentile, overweight and obesity, waist circumference, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure at age 15. METHODS: Trained technicians in the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development assessed children's weight and height from birth to 15 years and waist circumference and blood pressure at age 15 (n = 1132). Children's BMI percentile trajectories from age 2 to age 13 along with 28 demographic and social covariates were used to predict BMI percentile, waist circumference, overweight, obesity, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure. Linear and logistic regressions were used to predict BMI percentile, overweight, obesity, waist circumference, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure. RESULTS: Children were classified into one"?>1 of 4four"?> BMI percentile trajectories: "low stable" (28.4%), "low-to-high" (11.8%), "median stable" (29.0%), and "high rising" (30.7%). Children in trajectory classes characterized by persistent above average BMI percentile or by periods of rapid BMI percentile gains were more likely than their peers to experience poor weight and elevated or prehypertensive outcomes in adolescence. Trajectory class membership explained substantially more variance in adolescent health outcomes than demographic covariates alone. Estimated maternal BMI was a key independent predictor of adolescent outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Different patterns of BMI percentile gains, namely those with rapid gains or persistently above average BMI percentile, from ages 2 to 13 predicted weight, waist circumference, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure at age 15, above and beyond demographic and social characteristics.
OBJECTIVE: To examine whether patterns of body mass index (BMI) percentile gains across childhood predict BMI percentile, overweight and obesity, waist circumference, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure at age 15. METHODS: Trained technicians in the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development assessed children's weight and height from birth to 15 years and waist circumference and blood pressure at age 15 (n = 1132). Children's BMI percentile trajectories from age 2 to age 13 along with 28 demographic and social covariates were used to predict BMI percentile, waist circumference, overweight, obesity, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure. Linear and logistic regressions were used to predict BMI percentile, overweight, obesity, waist circumference, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure. RESULTS: Children were classified into one"?>1 of 4four"?> BMI percentile trajectories: "low stable" (28.4%), "low-to-high" (11.8%), "median stable" (29.0%), and "high rising" (30.7%). Children in trajectory classes characterized by persistent above average BMI percentile or by periods of rapid BMI percentile gains were more likely than their peers to experience poor weight and elevated or prehypertensive outcomes in adolescence. Trajectory class membership explained substantially more variance in adolescent health outcomes than demographic covariates alone. Estimated maternal BMI was a key independent predictor of adolescent outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Different patterns of BMI percentile gains, namely those with rapid gains or persistently above average BMI percentile, from ages 2 to 13 predicted weight, waist circumference, and elevated or prehypertensive blood pressure at age 15, above and beyond demographic and social characteristics.
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