| Literature DB >> 34858403 |
Sergey G Shcherbak1,2, Anna Yu Anisenkova1,2, Sergei V Mosenko1,2, Oleg S Glotov1,3, Alexander N Chernov1,4, Svetlana V Apalko1, Stanislav P Urazov1, Evgeny Y Garbuzov1, Dmitry N Khobotnikov1, Olga A Klitsenko5, Evdokia M Minina1, Zakhar P Asaulenko1,5.
Abstract
Objective: A critical role in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis is played by immune dysregulation that leads to a generalized uncontrolled multisystem inflammatory response, caused by overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines, known as "a cytokine storm" (CS), strongly associated with a severe course of disease. The aim of this study is to identify prognostic biomarkers for CS development in COVID-19 patients and integrate them into a prognostic score for CS-associated risk applicable to routine clinical practice. Materials andEntities:
Keywords: COVID-19; clinical and biochemical prognostic factors; cytokine storm; patients; prognostic scale
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34858403 PMCID: PMC8631447 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2021.745515
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Immunol ISSN: 1664-3224 Impact factor: 7.561
Demographic characteristics, history, and comorbidities of the patient study cohort.
| Parameter |
|
|---|---|
| Age (years) | |
| ≤39 | 38 (8.30%) |
| 40–49 | 58 (12.66%) |
| 50–59 | 123 (26.86%) |
| 60–69 | 139 (30.35%) |
| ≥70 | 100 (21.83%) |
| History of exposure to infected individuals | 100 (22.22%) |
| History of travel outside the place of residence during the past 14 days | 45 (9.83%) |
| Flu-resembling in relatives, including fever, cough, fatigue | 44 (9.61%) |
| History of other diseases | |
| Hypertension | 260 (56.77%) |
| Coronary artery disease | 222 (48.47%) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 139 (30.35%) |
| Poststroke condition | 97 (21.18%) |
| Condition following acute myocardial infarction | 34 (7.42%) |
| Condition following a surgical intervention | 89 (19.43%) |
| Rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases | 65 (14.19%) |
| Diabetes mellitus | 63 (13.76%) |
| Chronic kidney disease, stages 3 to 5 | 32 (6.99%) |
| Malignant lesions | 22 (4.80%) |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 20 (4.37%) |
| Chronic bronchitis | 20 (4.37%) |
| Chronic asthma | 13 (2.84%) |
Disease severity in different groups of patients.
| Parameter | Group 1 | Group 2 | Total |
| ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| % |
| % | |||
| Males | 58 | 58.0 | 159 | 44.4 | 217 | 0.016 |
| Females | 42 | 42.0 | 199 | 55.6 | 241 | |
| Moderate severity of disease | ||||||
| Moderate | 100 | 100.00 | 153 | 42.74 | 253 | 0.000 |
| Severe and extremely severe | 0 | 0.00 | 205 | 57.26 | 205 | |
| Lung involvement evaluation at admission based on a 4-point CT score ranking | ||||||
| CT-1 | 57 | 57.0 | 82 | 22.9 | 139 | |
| CT-2 | 43 | 43.0 | 223 | 62.3 | 263 | 0.000 |
| CT-3 | 0 | 0.0 | 44 | 12.3 | 47 | |
| CT-4 | 0 | 0.0 | 9 | 2.5 | 9 | |
| Outcomes | ||||||
| Survivals | 100 | 100.0 | 255 | 71.2 | 355 | 0.000 |
| Deaths | 0 | 0.0 | 103 | 28.8 | 103 | |
Assessment of the severity of changes in the lungs (volume, area, length) in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was carried out visually on the basis of computer programs for assessing the volume of compacted lung tissue and mapping the density of the pulmonary parenchyma in both lungs: (1) Absence of characteristic manifestations (CT-0). (2) Minimum volume/prevalence <25% of lung volume (CT-1). (3) Average volume/prevalence 25%–50% of lung volume (CT-2). (4) Significant volume/prevalence of 50%–75% of lung volume (CT-3). (5) Critical volume prevalence >75% of lung volume (CT-4) (9).
Between-group differences in NEWS score, time from symptoms onset to hospital admission, and length of hospital stay.
| Parameter | Characteristics | Group 1 | Group 2 |
| ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| Value |
| Value | |||
| NEWS score at admission | M ± SD | 100 | 2.4 ± 1.7 | 356 | 4.5 ± 2.7 | <0.001 |
| min ÷ max | 0 ÷ 8 | 0 ÷ 14 | ||||
| NEWS score by the start of CS treatment | M ± SD | 100 | 1.5 ± 1.6 | 357 | 5.68 ± 2.82 | <0.001 |
| min ÷ max | 0 ÷ 6 | 0 ÷ 14 | ||||
| NEWS score at discharge | M ± SD | 100 | 0.2 ± 1.02 | 349 | 3.29 ± 5.42 | <0.001 |
| min ÷ max | 0 ÷ 9 | 0 ÷ 16 | ||||
| Days from symptoms onset to hospital admission | M ± SD | 100 | 8.8 ± 5.9 | 356 | 6.63 ± 5.39 | <0.001 |
| min ÷ max | 0 ÷ 37 | 0 ÷ 57 | ||||
| Day of disease on which CS treatment started (anticytokine drugs, convalescent plasma, hemoadsorbtion) | M ± SD | 100 | 9.0 ± 6.0 | 357 | 10.35 ± 5.98 | <0.017 |
| min ÷ max | 1 ÷ 37 | 1 ÷ 59 | ||||
| Length of hospital stay (days in hospital) | M ± SD | 100 | 11.8 ± 4.9 | 355 | 13.6 ± 6.7 | <0.012 |
The NEWS2 is based on a simple aggregate scoring system in which a score is allocated to six physiological measurements (respiration rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, level of consciousness) when patients present to, or are being monitored in hospital.
Respiratory rate, per minute (NEWS score): ≤8 (+3), 9–11 (+1), 12–20 (0), 21–24 (+2), ≥25 (+3). Oxygen saturations, % (NEWS score): ≤91% (+3), 92%–93% (+2), 94%–95% (+1), ≥96% (0). Temperature, °C/°F (NEWS score): ≤35°C/95°F (+3), 35.1°–36°C/95.1°F–96.8°F (+1), 36.1°C–38°C/96.9°F–100.4°F (0), 38.1°C–39°C/100.5°F–102.2°F (+1), ≥39.1°C/102.3°F (+2).
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg (NEWS score): ≤90 (+3), 91–100 (+2), 101–110 (+1), 111–219 (0), ≥220 (+3).
Pulse rate, per minute (NEWS score): ≤40 (+3), 41–50 (+1), 51–90 (0), 91–110 (+1), 111–130) (+2). ≥131 (+3);
Consciousness: (NEWS score): alert (0), voice, pain, unresponsive (+3) (11).
Comparative analysis of basic variables for CS diagnosis at the onset of proactive anti-inflammatory treatment.
| Parameter | Group 1 | Group 2 |
| ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| M ± SDmin÷max |
| M ± SDmin÷max | ||
| Age (year) | 100 | 57.53 ± 15.06 | 358 | 60.5 ± 13.37 | 0.05 |
| 21 ÷ 86 | 24 ÷ 89 | ||||
| Serum lymphocytes (109/L) | 98 | 1.49 ± 0.59 | 349 | 1.28 ± 1.39 | <0.01 |
| 0.46 ÷ 3.2 | 0.23 ÷ 24.62 | ||||
| Serum LDH (U/L) | 27 | 357.78 ± 155.3 | 149 | 410.17 ± 191.24 | <0.1 |
| 169 ÷ 914 | 134 ÷ 1492 | ||||
| Serum CRP (mg/L) | 91 | 54.61 ± 64.92 | 346 | 106.71 ± 79.58 | <0.001 |
| 0.5 ÷ 274.9 | 0.8 ÷ 361.9 | ||||
| Serum ferritin (ng/ml) | 20 | 328.57 ± 185.15 | 190 | 696.28 ± 792.88 | <0.01 |
| 57.1 ÷ 781.3 | 0 ÷ 7759.4 | ||||
| Serum D-dimer (μg/ml) | 29 | 1.26 ± 2.75 | 147 | 1.84 ± 2.79 | <0.05 |
| 0.27 ÷ 15.34 | 0.15 ÷ 18.69 | ||||
| Serum IL-6 (pg/ml) | 65 | 15.02 ± 23.64 | 318 | 161.26 ± 442.5 | <0.001 |
| 0 ÷ 127.2 | 1.5 ÷ 4894 | ||||
| NEWS score dynamics from admission to the onset of CS treatment | 100 | −0.96 ± 1.19 | 356 | 1.24 ± 1.86 | <0.001 |
| –4 ÷ 4 | –3 ÷ 11 | ||||
Cutoffs for predictive risk factors of CS in groups 1 and 2 at the onset of proactive anti-inflammatory treatment.
| Parameter | Group 1 | Group 2 | Total |
| ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| % |
| % |
| ||
| Serum LDH (U/L) | ||||||
| ≤390 | 20 | 19.80 | 81 | 80.20 | 101 | <0.1 |
| >390 | 7 | 9.33 | 68 | 90.67 | 75 | |
| Age | ||||||
| <40 years | 16 | 42.11 | 22 | 57.89 | 38 | <0.01 |
| ≥40 years | 84 | 20.00 | 336 | 80.00 | 420 | |
| Test for replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA | ||||||
| Negative | 39 | 43.82 | 50 | 56.18 | 89 | <0.001 |
| Positive | 53 | 18.28 | 237 | 81.72 | 290 | |
| Serum CRP (mg/L) | ||||||
| <50 | 56 | 38.10 | 91 | 61.90 | 147 | <0.001 |
| ≥50 | 35 | 12.07 | 255 | 87.93 | 290 | |
| Serum lymphocytes (109/L) | ||||||
| ≥0.72 | 94 | 25.47 | 275 | 74.53 | 369 | <0.001 |
| <0.72 | 4 | 5.13 | 74 | 94.87 | 78 | |
| Serum D-dimer (μg/ml) | ||||||
| ≥2.1 | 28 | 19.44 | 116 | 80.56 | 144 | <0.05 |
| <2.1 | 1 | 3.13 | 31 | 96.88 | 32 | |
| Serum ferritin (ng/ml) | ||||||
| ≥485 | 18 | 15.93 | 95 | 84.07 | 113 | <0.01 |
| <485 | 2 | 2.06 | 95 | 97.94 | 97 | |
| NEWS score (points) | ||||||
| <0 | 62 | 74.70 | 21 | 25.30 | 83 | <0.001 |
| ≥0 | 38 | 10.19 | 335 | 89.81 | 373 | |
| Serum IL-6 (pg/ml) | ||||||
| ≤23 | 54 | 52.94 | 48 | 47.06 | 102 | <0.001 |
| >23 | 11 | 3.91 | 270 | 96.09 | 281 | |
The table shows the threshold values for all parameters that are highlighted as borderline for the risk of developing a cytokine storm.
CS incidence rate depending on the number of risk factors.
| No. of CS-associated risk factors | Group 1 | Group 2 | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| % |
| % | ||
| None | 2 | 100.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 |
| 1 factor | 12 | 100.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 12 |
| 2 factors | 14 | 63.64 | 8 | 36.36 | 22 |
| 3 factors | 21 | 37.50 | 35 | 62.50 | 56 |
| 4 factors | 6 | 9.68 | 56 | 90.32 | 62 |
| 5 factors | 2 | 1.64 | 120 | 98.36 | 122 |
| 6 factors | 0 | 0.00 | 34 | 100.00 | 34 |
| Total | 57 | 18.39 | 253 | 81.61 | 310 |
Figure 1Incremental CS-associated risk (OR) and its correlation with unfavorable lab test values.
Figure 2CS incidence rate in correlation with different sets of risk factors.