Linda Sharples1, Priya Sastry2, Carol Freeman3, Colin Bicknell4, Yi Da Chiu3,5, Srinivasa Rao Vallabhaneni6, Andrew Cook7, Joanne Gray8, Andrew McCarthy8, Peter McMeekin8, Luke Vale9, Stephen Large10. 1. Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK. 2. Department of Cardiac Surgery, John Radcliffe Hospital, Headley Way, Headington, Oxford OX3 9DU, UK. 3. Papworth Trials Unit Collaboration, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Papworth Road, Trumpington, Cambridge CB2 0AY, UK. 4. Department of Vascular Surgery, Imperial College, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK. 5. MRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK. 6. Liverpool Vascular & Endovascular Service, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Prescot Street, Liverpool, Merseyside L7 8XP, UK. 7. Wessex Institute & Southampton Clinical Trials Unit, University of Southampton, Alpha House, Enterprise Rd, Chilworth, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK. 8. Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Wells Close, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE7 7YT, UK. 9. Health Economics Group, Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE2 4AX, UK. 10. Department of Cardiac Surgery, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Papworth Road, Trumpington, Cambridge CB2 0AY, UK.
Abstract
AIMS: To observe, describe, and evaluate management and timing of intervention for patients with untreated thoracic aortic aneurysms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of UK National Health Service (NHS) patients aged ≥18 years, with new/existing arch or descending thoracic aortic aneurysms of ≥4 cm diameter, followed up until death, intervention, withdrawal, or July 2019. Outcomes were aneurysm growth, survival, quality of life (using the EQ-5D-5L utility index), and hospital admissions. Between 2014 and 2018, 886 patients were recruited from 30 NHS vascular/cardiothoracic units. Maximum aneurysm diameter was in the descending aorta in 725 (82%) patients, growing at 0.2 cm (0.17-0.24) per year. Aneurysms of ≥4 cm in the arch increased by 0.07 cm (0.02-0.12) per year. Baseline diameter was related to age and comorbidities, and no clinical correlates of growth were found. During follow-up, 129 patients died, 64 from aneurysm-related events. Adjusting for age, sex, and New York Heart Association dyspnoea index, risk of death increased with aneurysm size at baseline [hazard ratio (HR): 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.64-2.16) per cm, P < 0.001] and with growth [HR: 2.02 (1.70-2.41) per cm, P < 0.001]. Hospital admissions increased with aneurysm size [relative risk: 1.21 (1.05-1.38) per cm, P = 0.008]. Quality of life decreased annually for each 10-year increase in age [-0.013 (-0.019 to -0.007), P < 0.001] and for current smoking [-0.043 (-0.064 to -0.023), P = 0.004]. Aneurysm size was not associated with change in quality of life. CONCLUSION: International guidelines should consider increasing monitoring intervals to 12 months for small aneurysms and increasing intervention thresholds. Individualized decisions about surveillance/intervention should consider age, sex, size, growth, patient characteristics, and surgical risk.
AIMS: To observe, describe, and evaluate management and timing of intervention for patients with untreated thoracic aortic aneurysms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of UK National Health Service (NHS) patients aged ≥18 years, with new/existing arch or descending thoracic aortic aneurysms of ≥4 cm diameter, followed up until death, intervention, withdrawal, or July 2019. Outcomes were aneurysm growth, survival, quality of life (using the EQ-5D-5L utility index), and hospital admissions. Between 2014 and 2018, 886 patients were recruited from 30 NHS vascular/cardiothoracic units. Maximum aneurysm diameter was in the descending aorta in 725 (82%) patients, growing at 0.2 cm (0.17-0.24) per year. Aneurysms of ≥4 cm in the arch increased by 0.07 cm (0.02-0.12) per year. Baseline diameter was related to age and comorbidities, and no clinical correlates of growth were found. During follow-up, 129 patients died, 64 from aneurysm-related events. Adjusting for age, sex, and New York Heart Association dyspnoea index, risk of death increased with aneurysm size at baseline [hazard ratio (HR): 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.64-2.16) per cm, P < 0.001] and with growth [HR: 2.02 (1.70-2.41) per cm, P < 0.001]. Hospital admissions increased with aneurysm size [relative risk: 1.21 (1.05-1.38) per cm, P = 0.008]. Quality of life decreased annually for each 10-year increase in age [-0.013 (-0.019 to -0.007), P < 0.001] and for current smoking [-0.043 (-0.064 to -0.023), P = 0.004]. Aneurysm size was not associated with change in quality of life. CONCLUSION: International guidelines should consider increasing monitoring intervals to 12 months for small aneurysms and increasing intervention thresholds. Individualized decisions about surveillance/intervention should consider age, sex, size, growth, patient characteristics, and surgical risk.
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