Assessment of Human Health Risks in Tropical Environmental Waters with Microbial Source Tracking Markers.

Human specific microbial source tracking (MST) markers which are highly specific to human waste contamination offer the advantage of better association with human pathogens than traditional microbial indicators. However, the performance of these MST markers may vary across different geographical regions. The magnitude of MST markers also plays an important role in interpreting the health risks. This study aims to (i) validate the specificity and sensitivity of human markers for tropical urban catchments; (ii) identify the threshold concentrations of MST markers, i.e. human polyomaviruses (HPyVs), Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron (B. theta) and Methanobrevibacter smithii (M. smithii), that correspond to the acceptable gastrointestinal (GI) illness risks associated with swimming using the QMRA approach; and (iii) validate the threshold concentrations of MST markers using the surveillance data obtained from the tropical urban environment. Among the three MST markers, HPyVs showed the highest specificity (100%) to sewage samples, followed by M. smithii (97%) and B. theta (90%). All MST markers showed 100% sensitivity towards sewage contamination, with B. theta present in highest abundance in sewage, followed by HPyVs and M. smithii. This study demonstrates a risk-based framework to identify the threshold concentrations of MST markers associated with GI illness risks in environmental waters by considering two main influencing factors (i.e. decay and dilution factors). This study successfully validated the B. theta threshold concentration range (581 to 8073 GC/100 mL) with field data (370 to 6500 GC/100 mL) in estimating GI illness risks with an Enterococcus model. Field data showed that the MST markers at threshold concentrations were able to classify the safe level in more than 83% of the samples, according to GI illness risks from Enterococcus and adenovirus. The study also highlighted the lack of associations between MST markers and GI illness risks from norovirus. With comprehensive information on specificity, sensitivity and threshold concentrations of MST markers, increasing confidence can be placed on identifying human source contamination and evaluating the health risks posed in environmental waters in Singapore.