Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection.

Robust method of short-term forecast of Covid-19 epidemic in small administrative units (districts) is proposed. By identifying similar sections of epidemic evolutions in the past it is possible to obtain short-term forecast of epidemic in given district. Examples of one and two-weeks forecasts for three cities in Poland during third epidemic wave (March and April 2021) are shown. Difference between epidemic evolutions in third wave and previous waves caused by Covid B.1.1.7 UK variant is observed. Proposed algorithm allows one to manage epidemic locally by entering or releasing anti-Covid restrictions in groups of small administrative units.