Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hepatitis A Virus and Hepatitis E Virus from Raw Oyster Consumption.

A quantitative risk assessment of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV) from raw oyster consumption from farm and retail was evaluated over three seasons. This risk assessment comprises four steps: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. We used probabilistic models for prevalence, concentration, and oyster consumption. HEV dose-response (DR) model based on HEV dosing in chimpanzees and used to perform a dose-response assessment of HEV was proposed. Both HAV and HEV were simultaneously enumerated by real-time PCR to determine viral doses. The probabilistic prevalences of HAV and HEV were in the ranges of 8-20% and 8-40%, respectively. The best-fit DR model was the beta-Poisson with alpha and N50 equal to 216.9 and 3.03 × 107 , respectively. After running the Monte Carlo simulation, the annual cases of foodborne hepatitis A and hepatitis E from raw oyster consumption from farms were 9,264-17,526 and 1-604, respectively, while those at retail were 7,694-14,591 and 1-204, respectively. This study suggested that consuming farm oysters poses a significantly higher risk of hepatitis A than hepatitis E. The best-fit DR model for HEV developed in this study could determine risks of hepatitis E from raw oyster consumption in Thailand.