| Literature DB >> 34561482 |
Olga V Churakova Sidorova1, Rolf T W Siegwolf2, Marina V Fonti3, Eugene A Vaganov4,5, Matthias Saurer2.
Abstract
Rapid changes in the hydrological and temperature regimes over the past decades at the northern latitudes enhance significantly permafrost degradation accelerating carbon release, increase the frequency of drought events and extensive wildfires. However, the mechanisms and dynamics driving drought events and their influence on Siberian forests are currently the subject of numerous research activities. Newly developed and annually resolved stable carbon and oxygen isotope chronologies of larch tree-ring cellulose (δ13Ccell and δ18Ocell) for the period 516-2009 CE allowed the reconstruction of July precipitation and Arctic Oscillation (AO) in May, respectively. Unprecedented drought events occurred towards twentieth-twenty-first centuries as indicated by the July precipitation reconstruction. Positive AO phases in May were most pronounced during the second part of the first millennium, but also increased in frequency in the modern period of the twentieth-twenty-first centuries. Negative AO phases are associated with cold anomalies and show a remarkable decrease in the nineteenth century caused by a series of major volcanic eruptions. Our findings help explaining the increased frequency of Siberian forest fires over the past decades in Central Siberia consistent with a reduction of summer precipitation, triggered by a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in May.Entities:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34561482 PMCID: PMC8463678 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-97911-2
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Figure 1Annually resolved (grey) and smoothed by a 41-year Hamming window (bold black) stable carbon δ13Ccell (a) and oxygen (δ18Ocell) (b) isotope chronologies. Number of trees (c) used for both δ13Ccell and δ18Ocell chronologies.
Figure 2Correlation coefficients calculated between climatic parameters (temperature—T; Arctic Oscillation index—AO and precipitation—P) and the δ13Ccell (a) and δ18O cell (b) chronologies over the common period of observations from 1969 to 2009 CE. Dashed red lines represent a level of significance at P < 0.05. Numbers from 1 to 12 indicate months.
Figure 3A high-frequency July precipitation reconstruction derived from the δ13Ccell (black line) and fitted distance weighted LS (bold red line). The standard deviation (SD = 13.39 mm/July, SE = ± 0.35) analyzed for the period 516–2009 CE is represented by the dashed red line.
Warm and cold extremes were reconstructed based on the δ18Ocell for Arctic Oscillation (AO) in Mai positive (AO+) and negative (AO−) phases respectively. Extremely dry and wet years of July precipitation were derived from the δ13Ccell chronology from Taimyr Peninsula over the past 1494 years. As reference major volcanic eruptions with volcanic explosivity index[33] (VEI ≥ 4) and wildfires reported from other studies[5,31,34,35] were considered. Extrem years (≥ − 3σ) are marked as asterick.
| Arctic Oscillation (AO) index (δ18Ocell) | July precipitation (δ13Ccell) | Extreme climatic events | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative phase (AO−) | Positive phase (AO+) | Positive phase | Negative phase | Years of major volcanic eruptions, Volcanic Explosivity Index[ | Wildfire years[ |
| 871, 927, 962, 974, 1032–1033, 1069, 1075–1079, 1121, 1122, 1304, 1761, 1814–1815, 1818–1820, 1822*–1828, 1831, 1834–1838 | 561, 832, 875, 923*, 943, 1012, 1307, 943*, 955, 990, 1012, 1024, 1307, 2009 | 537, 538, 544, 550, 1104–1106, 1108, 1113, 1118, 1124, 1194*, 1213, 1215, 1259, 1286, 1290, 1291, 1302, 1315, 1331, 1501, 1505, 1559, 1565 | 832, 927, 1050, 1208, 1325, 1329, 1337, 1345, 1368, 1383, 1419, 1420, 1444, 1448, 1451, 1455, 1462, 1466, 1538, 1561, 1596, 1713, 1717*, 1732*, 1733, 1910, 1917, 1923–1925, 1947–1949, 1955, 1956, 1957*,1958, 1968, 1969, 1975, 1979*, 1980*, 1981, 1984, 1985, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008*, 2009 * | 536, 541, 1257, 1812, 1815, 1822 | 1700–1740, 1770–1795, 1860–1895, 1923, 1953–1955, 1924, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1984, 2002, 2008, 2009 |
Figure 4Annually-resolved reconstructed Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in May inferred from δ18O tree-ring cellulose (a) and smoothed by a 101-year Hamming window AO index in May in comparison with a proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)[25] (b).
Figure 5Spatial correlation coefficients computed between (a) reconstructed Arctic Oscillation (AO) indexes in May vs. CRU TS4.04 (P < 0.01) averaged May–July air temperature and (b) reconstructed July precipitation vs. CRU TS4.04 (P < 0.01) gridded July precipitation computed for the period 1969–2009 CE (P < 0.1) within the 60°–80° N, 10°–150° E. Scale represents a range from negative (− 0.6, blue color) to positive (0.6, red color) values. Star indicates the study site at the Taimyr Peninsula (70° N, 102° E). Climate explorer (KNMI climexp.knmi.nl) was used for plotting a grid net 0.5° within 60°–80° N and 10°–150° E.