Literature DB >> 34558764

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100.

Christopher Lyon1,2, Erin E Saupe3, Christopher J Smith2,4, Daniel J Hill2, Andrew P Beckerman5, Lindsay C Stringer6, Robert Marchant6, James McKay7, Ariane Burke8, Paul O'Higgins9, Alexander M Dunhill2, Bethany J Allen2, Julien Riel-Salvatore8, Tracy Aze2.   

Abstract

Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.
© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Entities:  

Keywords:  adaptation; climate change; climate models; crop projections; heat stress

Mesh:

Substances:

Year:  2021        PMID: 34558764     DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15871

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Glob Chang Biol        ISSN: 1354-1013            Impact factor:   10.863


  3 in total

1.  Priming with Small Molecule-Based Biostimulants to Improve Abiotic Stress Tolerance in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Authors:  Alba E Hernándiz; Carlos Eduardo Aucique-Perez; Sanja Ćavar Zeljković; Nikola Štefelová; Sara Salcedo Sarmiento; Lukáš Spíchal; Nuria De Diego
Journal:  Plants (Basel)       Date:  2022-05-11

2.  Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Authors:  Chris A Boulton
Journal:  Glob Chang Biol       Date:  2021-10-24       Impact factor: 13.211

3.  Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change.

Authors:  Trevor T Bringloe; David P Wilkinson; Jesica Goldsmit; Amanda M Savoie; Karen Filbee-Dexter; Kathleen A Macgregor; Kimberly L Howland; Christopher W McKindsey; Heroen Verbruggen
Journal:  Glob Chang Biol       Date:  2022-03-08       Impact factor: 13.211

  3 in total

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