| Literature DB >> 34557817 |
Louis Appleby1, Nicola Richards1, Saied Ibrahim1, Pauline Turnbull1, Cathryn Rodway1, Nav Kapur1,2,3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There have been concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to an increase in suicide. The coronial system in England is not suitable for timely monitoring of suicide because of the delay of several months before inquests are held.Entities:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34557817 PMCID: PMC8454726 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100110
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Lancet Reg Health Eur ISSN: 2666-7762
Fig. 1.Map highlighting 10 NHS sustainability and transformation partnerships with “real-time surveillance” suicide data in the study.
Monthly suicide numbers, rates and IRRs using RTS-recorded data in 2020 and coroner-confirmed data between 2016 and 2018.
| Month | Number | Rate (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 131 | 13•3 (11•1–15•7) | 1•00 | |
| Feb | 113 | 12•2 (10•1–14•7) | 0.91 (0•71–1•16) | 0•43 |
| Mar | 133 | 13•5 (11•3–16•0) | 1.05 (0•85–1•30) | 0•68 |
| Apr | 114 | 11•9 (9•8–14•3) | 0.91 (0•68–1•22) | 0•52 |
| May | 139 | 14•1 (11•8–16•6) | 1.07 (0•92–1•24) | 0•37 |
| Jun | 118 | 12•3 (10•2–14•8) | 0.94 (0•82–1•08) | 0•39 |
| Jul | 151 | 15•3 (12•9–17•9) | 1.15 (0•92–1•43) | 0•23 |
| Aug | 115 | 11•6 (9•6–14•0) | 0.88 (0•72–1•08) | 0•22 |
| Sep | 112 | 11•7 (9•6–14•1) | 0.88 (0•76–1•03) | 0•10 |
| Oct | 100 | 10•1 (8•2–12•3) | ||
| Jan | 312 | 10•8 (9•6–12•1) | 1•00 | |
| Feb | 296 | 11•2 (10•0–12•6) | 1•03 (0•85–1•24) | 0•79 |
| Mar | 309 | 10•7 (9•5–12•0) | 0•98 (0•80–1•19) | 0•81 |
| Apr | 321 | 11•5 (10•3–12•8) | 1•05 (0•90–1•24) | 0•52 |
| May | 336 | 11•6 (10•4–12•9) | 1•06 (0•85–1•35) | 0•61 |
| Jun | 329 | 11•8 (10•5–13•1) | 1•09 (0•93–1•23) | 0•30 |
| Jul | 337 | 11•7 (10•5–13•0) | 1•07 (0•94–1•23) | 0•31 |
| Aug | 301 | 10•4 (9•3–11•7) | 0•96 (0•81–1•12) | 0•58 |
| Sep | 301 | 10•8 (9•6–12•1) | 0•99 (0•86–1•13) | 0•88 |
| Oct | 292 | 10•1 (9•0–11•3) | 0•93 (0•79–1•09) | 0•37 |
| Jan | 1228 | 10•2 (9•6–10•8) | 1•00 | |
| Feb | 1109 | 10•1 (9•5–10•7) | 0•98 (0•90–1•06) | 0•63 |
| Mar | 1208 | 10•0 (9•5–10•6) | 0•98 (0•91–1•06) | 0•59 |
| Apr | 1238 | 10•6 (10•0–11•2) | 1•04 (0•96–1•11) | 0•33 |
| May | 1329 | 11•0 (10•5–11•6) | 1•07 (0•98–1•17) | 0•11 |
| Jun | 1229 | 10•5 (10•0–11•2) | 1•03 (0•96–1•10) | 0•45 |
| Jul | 1263 | 10•5 (9•9–11•1) | 1•02 (0•94–1•10) | 0•61 |
| Aug | 1277 | 10•6 (10•0–11•1) | 1•04 (0•96–1•12) | 0•36 |
| Sep | 1139 | 9•8 (9•2–10•4) | 0•95 (0•88–1•04) | 0•27 |
| Oct | 1193 | 9•9 (9•4–10•5) | 0•97 (0•90–1•04) | 0•35 |
RTS = real-time surveillance; STP = sustainability and transformation partnerships; CI = confidence intervals, IRR = incidence rate ratio,.
January is the reference month in negative binomial regression when comparing IRRs.
Fig. 2.Suicide rates (with 95% confidence intervals) using “real-time surveillance” data in 10 participating STPs in 2020. Dotted line indicates the beginning of the lockdown.
Suicide number, rates and IRRs using RTS-recorded and coroner-confirmed data during three time periods: pre-lockdown, during lockdown and after lockdown (Pre-lockdown as baseline).
| Time period | Number | Rate (95% CI) | IRR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-lockdown (Jan-Mar) | 377 | 13•0 (11•7–14•4) | 1•00 | |
| During lockdown (Apr-May) | 253 | 13•0 (11•5–14•7) | 1•01 (0•81–1•25) | 0•96 |
| After lockdown (Jun-Oct) | 596 | 12•2 (11•3–13•2) | 0•94 (0•81–1•09) | 0•40 |
| Pre-lockdown (Jan-Mar) | 917 | 10•9 (10•2–11•6) | 1•00 | |
| During lockdown (Apr-May) | 657 | 11•6 (10•7–12•5) | 1•06 (0•96–1•17) | 0•28 |
| After lockdown (Jun-Oct) | 1560 | 10•9 (10•4–11•5) | 1•01 (0•95–1•06) | 0•81 |
| Pre-lockdown (Jan-Mar) | 3545 | 10•1 (9•8–10•4) | 1•00 | |
| During lockdown (Apr-May) | 2567 | 10•8 (10•4–11•3) | ||
| After lockdown (Jun-Oct) | 6101 | 10•3 (10•0–10•5) | 1•01 (0•98–1•05) | 0•42 |
RTS = real-time surveillance; STP = sustainability and transformation partnerships; IRR = incidence rate ratio; CI = confidence intervals;.
pre-lockdown as reference in negative binomial regression.
RTS-recorded suicide numbers, rates and IRRs from seven participating STPs with data in 2019 and 2020 from April to October.
| 2019 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Number | Rate | Number | Rate | IRR | |
| Apr | 77 | 10•4 (8•2–13•0) | 80 | 10•7 (8•5–13•3) | 1•03 (0•66–1•61) | 0•89 |
| May | 85 | 11•1 (8•9–13•7) | 114 | 14•8 (12•2–17•8) | 1•33 (0•97–1•84) | 0•08 |
| Jun | 100 | 13•5 (11•0–16•4) | 89 | 11•9 (9•6–14•7) | 0•88 (0•74–1•06) | 0•19 |
| Jul | 104 | 13•6 (11•1–16•5) | 113 | 14•7 (12•1–17•6) | 1•08 (0•72–1•63) | 0•71 |
| Aug | 86 | 11•2 (9•0–13•9) | 85 | 11•0 (8•8–13•6) | 0•98 (0•76–1•27) | 0•89 |
| Sep | 90 | 12•1 (9•8–14•9) | 89 | 11•9 (9•6–14•7) | 0•98 (0•76–1•27) | 0•90 |
| Oct | 91 | 11•9 (9•6–14•6) | 67 | 8•7 (6•7–11•0) | ||
| Total | 633 | 12•0 (11•1–12•9) | 637 | 12•0 (11•1–12•9) | 1•00 (0•92–1•09) | 1•00 |
RTS = real-time surveillance; STP = sustainability and transformation partnerships; IRR = incidence rate ratio; CI = confidence intervals;.
obtained using April 2019 as reference in a Poisson regression model with a month x year interaction.