| Literature DB >> 34557006 |
Manaye Tamrie Derseh1, Kiflom Solomon2, Wasihun Tamene3, Wosenie Beneberu3, Ashagrachew Tewabe Yayehrad4, Abyou Seyfu Ambaye1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism are known by the collective name venous thromboembolism. Deep vein thrombosis is the third most common cardiovascular disorder in the world. The disease is also prevalent in Africa including Ethiopia, besides lack of studies that show epidemiology of the disease.Entities:
Keywords: DVT; Ethiopia; cost effectiveness; rivaroxaban; warfarin
Year: 2021 PMID: 34557006 PMCID: PMC8453646 DOI: 10.2147/CEOR.S327868
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Clinicoecon Outcomes Res ISSN: 1178-6981
Figure 1State diagram for the economic model.
Base-Case Probability Values and Ranges, Base-Case Utility Values and Ranges, and Cost of Treatment Ranges Used in Sensitivity Analysis (95% CI or ± 20%)
| Variable | Base Case | Probability Ranges | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | |||
| Rivaroxaban | ||||
| Probability of Bleeding | 0.0096 | 0.0048 | 0.0143 | [ |
| Probability of Recurrence | 0.0210 | 0.0168 | 0.0252 | [ |
| Probability of death from PE | 0.1300 | 0.1040 | 0.1560 | [ |
| Probability of death in bleeding | 0.0600 | 0.0480 | 0.0720 | [ |
| Probability of recurrent PE | 0.0100 | 0.0080 | 0.0120 | [ |
| Probability of PE after DVT | 0.0020 | 0.0016 | 0.0024 | [ |
| Common variable | ||||
| Probability of PE end with DVT | 0.6050 | 0.4840 | 0.7260 | [ |
| Warfarin | ||||
| Probability of Bleeding | 0.0166 | 0.0083 | 0.0249 | [ |
| Probability of Recurrence | 0.0230 | 0.0184 | 0.0276 | [ |
| Probability of death from PE | 0.1500 | 0.1200 | 0.1800 | [ |
| Probability of death in bleeding | 0.0900 | 0.072 | 0.1080 | [ |
| Probability of recurrent PE | 0.0200 | 0.0160 | 0.0240 | [ |
| Probability of PE after DVT | 0.0043 | 0.0034 | 0.0052 | [ |
| Utility of DVT | 0.8400 | 0.6400 | 0.9800 | [ |
| Utility of No DVT | 1.0000 | 0.8000 | 1.0000 | |
| Cost of Rivaroxaban | 1767.14 | 1413.712 | 2120.568 | TASH and EPSA |
| Cost of Warfarin | 1491.83 | 1193.464 | 1790.196 | TASH and EPSA |
Base-Case LOS and Effectiveness (95% CI) Values and Ranges for Analysis
| Variable | Base Case | Distribution Ranges | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | |||
| Rivaroxaban | ||||
| Effectiveness | 0.9940 | 0.9750 | 1.0000 | [ |
| LOS at Hospital (days) in rivaroxaban for cost only | ||||
| DVT | 5 | [ | ||
| PE | 6 | |||
| Bleeding | 6 | Expert opinion | ||
| Warfarin | ||||
| Effectiveness | 0.9870 | 0.9400 | 1.0000 | [ |
| LOS at Hospital (days) in Warfarin for cost only | ||||
| DVT | 8 | [ | ||
| PE | 7 | |||
| Bleeding | 10 | Expert opinion | ||
Base Case Cost Effectiveness Table
| Strategy | Cost ($) | Incr. Cost ($) | Effectiveness (QALY) | Incr. Effe. (QALY) | C/E | ICER ($/QALY) | NMB ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warfarin | 932.92 | – | 16.34 | – | 57.10 | 11,859.72 | |
| Rivaroxaban | 988.58 | 55.66 | 16.78 | 0.443 | 58.91 | 125.68 | 12,150.82 |
Abbreviations: Incr.cost, incremental cost; Incr. Effe., incremental effectiveness.
Figure 2Base case cost effectiveness graph.
Figure 3Tornado diagram that demonstrates influence of each variable on the base case results.
Net Monetary Benefit Table for Sensitivity Analysis of Utility of No DVT, Cost of Rivaroxaban and Effectiveness of Rivaroxaban
| Cost of Rivaroxaban | Rivaroxaban | UFH/Warfarin |
|---|---|---|
| 1413.712 | 12,348.538 | 11,859.715 |
| 1590.426 | 12,249.680 | 11,859.715 |
| 1767.140 | 12,150.822 | 11,859.715 |
| 1943.854 | 12,051.964 | 11,859.715 |
| 2120.568 | 11,953.106 | 11,859.715 |
| Utility of No DVT | ||
| 0.800 | 9596.530 | 9383.449 |
| 0.850 | 10,235.103 | 10,002.516 |
| 0.900 | 10,873.676 | 10,621.582 |
| 0.950 | 11,512.249 | 11,240.648 |
| 1.000 | 12,150.822 | 11,859.715 |
| Effectiveness of Rivaroxaban | Rivaroxaban | UFH/Warfarin |
| 0.975 | 11,796.164 | 11,859.715 |
| 0.981 | 11,912.837 | 11,859.715 |
| 0.988 | 12,029.501 | 11,859.715 |
| 0.994 | 12,146.156 | 11,859.715 |
| 1.000 | 12,262.802 | 11,859.715 |
Figure 4Net benefit graph for one-way sensitivity analysis of utility of No DVT.
Figure 5Net benefit graph for one-way sensitivity analysis on cost of rivaroxaban.
Threshold Analysis for Sensitivity Analysis of Effectiveness of Rivaroxaban
| Attribute Name | Variable Name | Threshold | Comparator | Baseline | Exp. Value | WTP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMB | eRiva | 0.9784 | Warfarin | Rivaroxaban | 11,859.71 | 783 |
| Cost | eRiva | 0.9972 | Warfarin | Rivaroxaban | 932.9198 | 783 |
Abbreviation: eRiva, effectiveness of rivaroxaban.
Figure 6Net benefit graph for one-way sensitivity analysis on effectiveness of rivaroxaban.
Cost Effectiveness Table for Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Cost | Incr. Cost | Effectiveness | Incr. Effe | ICER | NMB | C/E | Dominance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warfarin | 912.67 | 16.34 | 11,879.97 | 55.86 | Undominated | |||
| Rivaroxaban | 988.58 | 75.92 | 16.78 | 0.44 | 171.42 | 12,150.82 | 58.91 | Undominated |
Abbreviations: Incr.cost, incremental cost; Incr.Effe, incremental effectiveness.
Figure 7Net benefit graph for two-way sensitivity analysis on cost of warfarin and rivaroxaban.
Figure 8Monte Carlo Simulation cost effectiveness Acceptability curve at WTP.
Figure 9Probabilistic sensitivity analysis acceptability curve.