Maogui Hu1, Jinfeng Wang1, Hui Lin2, Corrine W Ruktanonchai3,4, Chengdong Xu1, Bin Meng5, Xin Zhang6, Alessandra Carioli3, Yuqing Feng1, Qian Yin1, Jessica R Floyd3, Nick W Ruktanonchai3,4, Zhongjie Li7, Weizhong Yang8, Andrew J Tatem3, Shengjie Lai3. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 2. China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology, Beijing, China. 3. WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. 4. Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA. 5. Beijing Union University, Beijing, China. 6. Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 7. Divisions of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. 8. School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Modern transportation plays a key role in the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and new variants. However, little is known about the exact transmission risk of the virus on airplanes. METHODS: Using the itinerary and epidemiological data of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and close contacts on domestic airplanes departing from Wuhan city in China before the lockdown on 23 January 2020, we estimated the upper and lower bounds of overall transmission risk of COVID-19 among travelers. RESULTS: In total, 175 index cases were identified among 5797 passengers on 177 airplanes. The upper and lower attack rates (ARs) of a seat were 0.60% (34/5622, 95% confidence interval [CI] .43-.84%) and 0.33% (18/5400, 95% CI .21-.53%), respectively. In the upper- and lower-bound risk estimates, each index case infected 0.19 (SD 0.45) and 0.10 (SD 0.32) cases, respectively. The seats immediately adjacent to the index cases had an AR of 9.2% (95% CI 5.7-14.4%), with a relative risk 27.8 (95% CI 14.4-53.7) compared to other seats in the upper limit estimation. The middle seat had the highest AR (0.7%, 95% CI .4%-1.2%). The upper-bound AR increased from 0.7% (95% CI 0.5%-1.0%) to 1.2% (95% CI .4-3.3%) when the co-travel time increased from 2.0 hours to 3.3 hours. CONCLUSIONS: The ARs among travelers varied by seat distance from the index case and joint travel time, but the variation was not significant between the types of aircraft. The overall risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during domestic travel on planes was relatively low. These findings can improve our understanding of COVID-19 spread during travel and inform response efforts in the pandemic.
BACKGROUND: Modern transportation plays a key role in the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and new variants. However, little is known about the exact transmission risk of the virus on airplanes. METHODS: Using the itinerary and epidemiological data of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and close contacts on domestic airplanes departing from Wuhan city in China before the lockdown on 23 January 2020, we estimated the upper and lower bounds of overall transmission risk of COVID-19 among travelers. RESULTS: In total, 175 index cases were identified among 5797 passengers on 177 airplanes. The upper and lower attack rates (ARs) of a seat were 0.60% (34/5622, 95% confidence interval [CI] .43-.84%) and 0.33% (18/5400, 95% CI .21-.53%), respectively. In the upper- and lower-bound risk estimates, each index case infected 0.19 (SD 0.45) and 0.10 (SD 0.32) cases, respectively. The seats immediately adjacent to the index cases had an AR of 9.2% (95% CI 5.7-14.4%), with a relative risk 27.8 (95% CI 14.4-53.7) compared to other seats in the upper limit estimation. The middle seat had the highest AR (0.7%, 95% CI .4%-1.2%). The upper-bound AR increased from 0.7% (95% CI 0.5%-1.0%) to 1.2% (95% CI .4-3.3%) when the co-travel time increased from 2.0 hours to 3.3 hours. CONCLUSIONS: The ARs among travelers varied by seat distance from the index case and joint travel time, but the variation was not significant between the types of aircraft. The overall risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during domestic travel on planes was relatively low. These findings can improve our understanding of COVID-19 spread during travel and inform response efforts in the pandemic.
Authors: Tara M Vogt; Marta A Guerra; Elaine W Flagg; Thomas G Ksiazek; Sara A Lowther; Paul M Arguin Journal: J Travel Med Date: 2006 Sep-Oct Impact factor: 8.490
Authors: Hamish Gibbs; Yang Liu; Carl A B Pearson; Christopher I Jarvis; Chris Grundy; Billy J Quilty; Charlie Diamond; Rosalind M Eggo Journal: Nat Commun Date: 2020-10-06 Impact factor: 14.919