| Literature DB >> 34514806 |
Alvaro Alonso1, Faye L Norby2,3, Richard F MacLehose3, Neil A Zakai4, Rob F Walker3, Terrence J Adam5, Pamela L Lutsey3.
Abstract
Background Current scores for bleeding risk assessment in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) undergoing oral anticoagulation have limited predictive capacity. We developed and internally validated a bleeding prediction model using healthcare claims data. Methods and Results We selected patients with incident VTE initiating oral anticoagulation in the 2011 to 2017 MarketScan databases. Hospitalized bleeding events were identified using validated algorithms in the 180 days after VTE diagnosis. We evaluated demographic factors, comorbidities, and medication use before oral anticoagulation initiation as potential predictors of bleeding using stepwise selection of variables in Cox models run on 1000 bootstrap samples of the patient population. Variables included in >60% of all models were selected for the final analysis. We internally validated the model using bootstrapping and correcting for optimism. We included 165 434 patients with VTE and initiating oral anticoagulation, of whom 2294 had a bleeding event. After undergoing the variable selection process, the final model included 20 terms (15 main effects and 5 interactions). The c-statistic for the final model was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.69). The internally validated c-statistic corrected for optimism was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.69). For comparison, the c-statistic of the Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile International Normalized Ratio, Elderly (>65 Years), Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly (HAS-BLED) score in this population was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.63). Conclusions We have developed a novel model for bleeding prediction in VTE using large healthcare claims databases. Performance of the model was moderately good, highlighting the urgent need to identify better predictors of bleeding to inform treatment decisions.Entities:
Keywords: MarketScan; bleeding; oral anticoagulants; prediction; venous thromboembolism
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34514806 PMCID: PMC8649528 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.121.021227
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 5.501
Figure 1Flowchart of patient inclusion, MarketScan 2011 to 2017.
OAC indicates oral anticoagulation; and VTE, venous thromboembolism.
Characteristics of Patients With VTE by Anticoagulant Use, MarketScan 2011 to 2017
| Characteristics | Overall | Warfarin | Rivaroxaban | Apixaban |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total No. | 165 434 | 116 319 | 37 214 | 11 901 |
| Age, y | 58±16 | 59±16 | 56±15 | 60±16 |
| Female sex | 50 | 50 | 49 | 50 |
| Hypertension | 57 | 57 | 55 | 63 |
| Diabetes | 22 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| Alcohol abuse | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Myocardial infarction | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 7.9 |
| Heart failure | 13 | 14 | 10 | 16 |
| Ischemic stroke/TIA | 11 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
| Renal disease | 10 | 11 | 7.0 | 13 |
| Peripheral artery disease | 13 | 13 | 11 | 15 |
| Chronic pulmonary disease | 27 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
| Liver disease | 8.8 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 |
| Malignancy/metastatic cancer | 18 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
| Anemia | 26 | 27 | 24 | 28 |
| Thrombocytopenia | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.9 |
| Peptic ulcer disease | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Other previous bleeding | 11 | 11 | 8.7 | 13 |
| HAS‐BLED score | 1.7±1.3 | 1.7±1.3 | 1.6±1.3 | 1.8±1.3 |
| Median (25th–75th percentile) | 1 (1–2) | 2 (1–3) | 1 (1–2) | 2 (1–3) |
| Warfarin | 70 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Rivaroxaban | 22 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
| Apixaban | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Antiplatelets | 6.2 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 6.6 |
| NSAIDs | 35 | 33 | 41 | 34 |
| Gastroprotective drugs | 29 | 29 | 29 | 31 |
| SSRIs | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Cytochrome P450 3A4 inhibitors | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
Values correspond to mean±SD or percentage, unless stated otherwise. HAS‐BLED indicates Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile International Normalized Ratio, Elderly (>65 Years), Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly; SSRI, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor; TIA, transient ischemic attack; and VTE, venous thromboembolism.
Predictors of Bleeding Considered in Cox Regression Models, MarketScan 2011 to 2017
| Predictor | No. of samples | β Coefficient | HR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age, per year | 1000 | 0.011 | 1.01 (1.008–1.014) |
| Malignancy/metastatic cancer | 1000 | 0.355 | 1.43 (1.30–1.57) |
| Anemia | 1000 | 0.500 | 1.65 (1.51–1.81) |
| Rivaroxaban (vs warfarin) | 1000 | −0.155 | 0.86 (0.77–0.95) |
| Apixaban (vs warfarin) | 1000 | −0.635 | 0.53 (0.43–0.65) |
| Antiplatelets | 998 | 0.375 | 1.46 (1.27–1.66) |
| Liver disease | 996 | 0.319 | 1.38 (1.22–1.55) |
| Diabetes | 991 | 0.223 | 1.25 (1.14–1.37) |
| Other previous bleeding | 986 | 0.265 | 1.30 (1.17–1.46) |
| Chronic pulmonary disease | 930 | 0.182 | 1.20 (1.10–1.31) |
| Renal disease | 896 | 0.213 | 1.24 (1.11–1.39) |
| Alcohol abuse | 857 | 0.547 | 1.73 (1.26–2.36) |
| Female sex | 818 | 0.130 | 1.14 (1.05–1.24) |
| Ischemic stroke/TIA | 740 | 0.163 | 1.18 (1.05–1.32) |
| Thrombocytopenia | 607 | 0.194 | 1.21 (1.03–1.43) |
| NSAIDs | 552 | ||
| Gastroprotective drugs | 520 | ||
| Heart failure | 462 | ||
| Peptic ulcer disease | 422 | ||
| SSRIs | 397 | ||
| Hypertension | 222 | ||
| Myocardial infarction | 139 | ||
| Peripheral artery disease | 88 | ||
| Cytochrome P450 3A4 inhibitors | 42 |
Number of samples indicates the times that a variable was included in any of the 1000 bootstrap samples. The β coefficient and HR (95% CI) are for the final model, including all covariates selected in >60% of the models. HR indicates hazard ratio; SSRI, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor; and TIA, transient ischemic attack.
β Coefficients, SEs, and P Values for Bleeding Predictors Selected in Final Model, MarketScan 2011 to 2017
| Predictor | β Coefficient | SE |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Age, per year | 0.021 | 0.002 | <0.001 |
| Female sex | 0.211 | 0.051 | <0.001 |
| Diabetes | 0.216 | 0.047 | <0.001 |
| Alcohol abuse | 0.528 | 0.160 | 0.001 |
| Ischemic stroke/TIA | 0.182 | 0.057 | 0.001 |
| Renal disease | 0.233 | 0.058 | <0.001 |
| Chronic pulmonary disease | 0.184 | 0.045 | <0.001 |
| Liver disease | 0.294 | 0.062 | <0.001 |
| Malignancy/metastatic cancer | 1.318 | 0.234 | <0.001 |
| Anemia | 1.269 | 0.185 | <0.001 |
| Thrombocytopenia | 0.180 | 0.083 | 0.03 |
| Other previous bleeding | 1.192 | 0.232 | <0.001 |
| Rivaroxaban (vs warfarin) | −0.182 | 0.059 | 0.002 |
| Apixaban (vs warfarin) | −0.763 | 0.126 | <0.001 |
| Antiplatelets | 0.379 | 0.068 | <0.001 |
| Age*cancer | −0.012 | 0.003 | <0.001 |
| Age*anemia | −0.012 | 0.003 | <0.001 |
| Age*previous bleed | −0.016 | 0.004 | <0.001 |
| Female sex*cancer | −0.347 | 0.093 | <0.001 |
| Rivaroxaban*previous bleed | 0.212 | 0.141 | 0.13 |
| Apixaban*previous bleed | 0.577 | 0.238 | 0.02 |
The 1‐year risk of bleeding can be calculated as follows: 1−(0.98768)^Exp[0.021*(age−58.2)+0.211*(female sex−0.499)+0.216*(diabetes−0.221)+0.528*(alcohol abuse−0.009)+0.182*(ischemic stroke/TIA−0.111)+0.233*(renal disease−0.101)+0.184*(chronic pulmonary disease−0.266)+0.294*(liver disease−0.088)+1.318*(cancer−0.177)+1.269*(anemia−0.264)−0.180*(thrombocytopenia−0.041)+1.192*(other previous bleeding−0.108)−0.182*(rivaroxaban−0.225)−0.763*(apixaban−0.072)+0.379*(antiplatelets−0.062)−0.012*(age*cancer−11.5)−0.012*(age*anemia−16.3)−0.016*(age*previous bleed−6.57)−0.347*(female sex*cancer−0.088)+0.212 (rivaroxaban*previous bleed−0.020)+0.577*(apixaban*previous bleed−0.009)]. TIA indicates transient ischemic attack.
Figure 2Calibration of predictive model, MarketScan 2011 to 2017.
The plot shows the predicted vs observed probabilities by deciles of predicted risk (blue circles). Perfect calibration corresponds to the orange dashed line.
Figure 3Cumulative incidence of hospitalized major bleeding by categories of 180‐day predicted risk (<1%, 1%–<2%, and ≥2%), MarketScan 2011 to 2017.
Discrimination and Calibration of the Prediction Model Overall and Across Subgroups
| Group | C‐statistic (95% CI) | Calibration χ2 ( |
|---|---|---|
| Full sample | 0.682 (0.671–0.692) | 27.6 (0.001) |
| Women | 0.666 (0.651–0.681) | 9.1 (0.43) |
| Men | 0.699 (0.683–0.714) | 14.4 (0.11) |
| Aged ≤58 y | 0.688 (0.670–0.707) | 16.3 (0.06) |
| Aged >58 y | 0.652 (0.639–0.666) | 16.7 (0.05) |
| Warfarin users | 0.669 (0.656–0.681) | 15.9 (0.07) |
| Rivaroxaban users | 0.705 (0.679–0.730) | 15.8 (0.07) |
| Apixaban users | 0.709 (0.657–0.760) | 15.4 (0.08) |
| Intracranial hemorrhage | 0.720 (0.687–0.752) | 6.5 (0.69) |
| Gastrointestinal bleed | 0.716 (0.703–0.729) | 20.9 (0.01) |
| Other bleeding | 0.662 (0.641–0.681) | 12.1 (0.21) |