| Literature DB >> 34514018 |
Aaron C Miller1, Scott H Koeneman2, Alan T Arakkal1, Joseph E Cavanaugh2, Philip M Polgreen1,3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Delays in diagnosing herpes simplex encephalitis (HSE) are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this paper is to determine the frequency and duration of diagnostic delays for HSE and risk factors for diagnostic delays.Entities:
Keywords: HSE; delayed diagnosis; missed opportunities
Year: 2021 PMID: 34514018 PMCID: PMC8415533 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab400
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Open Forum Infect Dis ISSN: 2328-8957 Impact factor: 3.835
Demographic Data
| Variable | Total Patients (% of Patients) | Patients With Symptomatically Similar Diagnoses in Delay Window (% of Patients in Group) |
|---|---|---|
| Age at Diagnosis | ||
| <18 | 134 (5.0%) | 89 (66.4%) |
| 18–35 | 298 (11.2%) | 157 (52.7%) |
| 36–45 | 301 (11.3%) | 172 (57.1%) |
| 46–55 | 499 (18.7%) | 260 (52.1%) |
| 56–65 | 645 (24.2%) | 354 (54.9%) |
| >65 | 790 (29.6%) | 385 (48.7%) |
| Sex | ||
| Male | 1245 (46.7%) | 646 (51.9%) |
| Female | 1422 (53.3%) | 771 (54.2%) |
| Enrollment Time Before Index (Years) | ||
| Mean | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Median | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| Range | 0.5–16.9 | 0.5–16.9 |
| Count ≤1.5 years | 696 (26.1%) | 356 (51.1%) |
| Count ≤2 years | 696 (26.1%) | 485 (51.7%) |
| Count ≤3 years | 939 (35.2%) | 717 (52.3%) |
| Count >3 years | 1372 (51.4%) | 700 (54.1%) |
| Region | ||
| Rural | 486 (18.2%) | 279 (57.4%) |
| Urban | 2164 (81.1%) | 1130 (52.2%) |
| Missing | 17 (0.6%) | 8 (47.1%) |
Figure 1.Spike in symptomatically similar diagnoses-related visits before index diagnosis.
Figure 2.Symptomatically similar diagnoses (SSD) visits with change point (blue line) defining the diagnostic opportunity window and the estimated expected number of SSD visits (red line) before diagnosis. The estimated number of likely missed opportunities is represented as the difference between the observed (black line) and the upper prediction bound (red shaded area) of the expected curve.
Number and Duration of Delayed Visits Per Patient
| Number of Delayed Visits | Estimated Number of Patients/Days (% of total patients) | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| 0 Visits | 1444 (54.1%) | 1385 - 1503 (51.9–56.4%) |
| ≥1 Visit | 1223 (45.9%) | 1164–1282 (43.6–48.1%) |
| ≥2 Visits | 703 (26.4%) | 646–760 (24.2–28.5%) |
| ≥3 Visits | 376 (14.1%) | 330–421 (12.4–15.8%) |
| ≥4 Visit | 191 (7.2%) | 156–227 (5.8–8.5%) |
| ≥5 Visit | 101 (3.8%) | 76–128 (2.8–4.8%) |
| Mean—Overall | 2.23 | 2.11–2.37 |
| Median—Overall | 2 | 2–2 |
| Mean—Outpatient | 1.44 | 1.34–1.55 |
| Median—Outpatient | 1 | 1–1 |
| Mean—Inpatient | 0.15 | 0.13–0.17 |
| Median—Inpatient | 0 | 0–0 |
| Mean—ED | 0.64 | 0.59–0.69 |
| Median—ED | 1 | 1–1 |
|
| ||
| ≥1 | 1223 (100.0%) | 1164–1282 (100.0–100.0%) |
| ≥2 | 685 (56.0%) | 621–746 (52.3–59.7%) |
| ≥4 | 477 (39.0%) | 413–540 (34.5–43.1%) |
| ≥6 | 345 (28.2%) | 282–407 (23.5–32.6%) |
| ≥8 | 268 (21.9%) | 206–328 (17.3–26.3%) |
| ≥10 | 217 (17.7%) | 160–275 (13.4–22.0%) |
| ≥12 | 181 (14.7%) | 129–236 (10.8–18.9%) |
| ≥14 | 138 (11.3%) | 85–193 (7.1–15.6%) |
| ≥16 | 101 (8.2%) | 51–152 (4.3–12.2%) |
| ≥18 | 76 (6.2%) | 35–123 (2.9–10.0%) |
| Mean days delayed (among delayed) | 4.65 | 3.89–5.46 |
| Median days delayed (among delayed) | 2 | 2–2 |
| Mean days delayed (overall) | 2.13 | 1.74–2.57 |
| Median days delayed (overall) | 0 | 0–0 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; ED, emergency department.
aCI is one point because this discrete value is predominantly or exclusively represented in the bootstrap distribution for the median.
Likelihood of Experiencing a Missed Opportunity: Logistic Regression Model Results
| Coefficient | OR Estimate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Age 0–17 | 1.332 | 0.909–1.951 |
| Age 18–35 | 0.757 | 0.557–1.027 |
| Age 36–45 | 0.837 | 0.623–1.124 |
| Age 46–55 | 0.906 | 0.704–1.166 |
| Age 56–65 | Ref | Ref |
| Age >65 | 0.759 | 0.609–0.954 |
| Female | 1.028 | 0.873–1.210 |
| Urban vs not urban | 0.777 | 0.632–0.954 |
| Settings Visited | ||
| Outpatient only | Ref | Ref |
| Inpatient, outpatient, and ED (all 3) | 0.016 | 0.011–0.024 |
| ED Only | 4.300 | 2.383–7.758 |
| Inpatient and ED | 0.02 | 0.015–0.026 |
| Inpatient and outpatient | 0.018 | 0.014–0.022 |
| Inpatient only | 0.017 | 0.014–0.022 |
| Outpatient and ED | 0.673 | 0.512–0.884 |
| Sinusitis history (≥2 visits 60–365 days before index) | 2.512 | 1.340–4.711 |
| Schizophrenia/psychotic disorder history (≥2 visits 60–365 days before index) | 2.485 | 0.978–6.317 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; ED, emergency department; OR, odds ratio; Ref, reference group.