Michael J Lopez1,2, Christina Mack3,4, Thompson Bliss1, Erin B Wasserman3, Emily Myers1, Gary Solomon1, John Lynch5, Anthony Casolaro6, Michael Osterholm7, Dan Hanfling8, Thom Mayer9, Allen K Sills1. 1. From the National Football League, New York, NY. 2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY. 3. IQVIA, Real World Solutions, Durham, NC. 4. Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC. 5. Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. 6. MD2 McLean, Virginia Hospital Center, Tysons Corner, VA. 7. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN. 8. In_Q-Tel, Arlington, VA. 9. NFL Players Association, Washington, DC.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The National Football League (NFL) and National Football League Players Association implemented a set of strict protocols for the 2020 season with the intent to mitigate COVID-19 risk among players and staff. In that timeframe, the league's 32 teams completed 256 regular season games and several thousand meetings and practices. In parallel, community cases of COVID-19 were highly prevalent. We assess the risk of holding a 2020 NFL season by comparing community and player COVID-19 infections. METHODS: We used county-level COVID-19 test data from each team to establish baseline distributions of infection rates expected to occur in a population similar in age and sex to NFL players. We used a binomial distribution to simulate expected infections in each community cohort and compared these findings with observed COVID-19 infections in players. RESULTS: Over a 5-month period (1 August 2020 to 2 January 2021), positive NFL player infections (n = 256) were 55.7% lower than expected when compared with simulations from NFL community cohorts. For 30 of 32 teams (94%), observed counts fell at or below expectation, including 28 teams (88%) for which rates were lower. Two teams fell above baseline expectation. CONCLUSIONS: The NFL/NFLPA protocols that governed team facilities, travel, gameday, and activities outside of the workplace were associated with lower infection rates among NFL players compared with the surrounding community. The NFL's 2020-2021 season are consistent with the hypothesis that robust testing and behavioral protocols support a safe return to sport and work.
BACKGROUND: The National Football League (NFL) and National Football League Players Association implemented a set of strict protocols for the 2020 season with the intent to mitigate COVID-19 risk among players and staff. In that timeframe, the league's 32 teams completed 256 regular season games and several thousand meetings and practices. In parallel, community cases of COVID-19 were highly prevalent. We assess the risk of holding a 2020 NFL season by comparing community and player COVID-19 infections. METHODS: We used county-level COVID-19 test data from each team to establish baseline distributions of infection rates expected to occur in a population similar in age and sex to NFL players. We used a binomial distribution to simulate expected infections in each community cohort and compared these findings with observed COVID-19 infections in players. RESULTS: Over a 5-month period (1 August 2020 to 2 January 2021), positive NFL player infections (n = 256) were 55.7% lower than expected when compared with simulations from NFL community cohorts. For 30 of 32 teams (94%), observed counts fell at or below expectation, including 28 teams (88%) for which rates were lower. Two teams fell above baseline expectation. CONCLUSIONS: The NFL/NFLPA protocols that governed team facilities, travel, gameday, and activities outside of the workplace were associated with lower infection rates among NFL players compared with the surrounding community. The NFL's 2020-2021 season are consistent with the hypothesis that robust testing and behavioral protocols support a safe return to sport and work.
Authors: Antonio Maestro; David Varillas-Delgado; Esther Morencos; Jorge Gutiérrez-Hellín; Millán Aguilar-Navarro; Gonzalo Revuelta; Juan Del Coso Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-08-18 Impact factor: 4.614