Radiotherapy resources in Africa: an International Atomic Energy Agency update and analysis of projected needs.

The number of patients with cancer in Africa has been predicted to increase from 844 279 in 2012 to more than 1·5 million in 2030. However, many countries in Africa still lack access to radiotherapy as a part of comprehensive cancer care. The objective of this analysis is to present an updated overview of radiotherapy resources in Africa and to analyse the gaps and needs of the continent for 2030 in the context of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Data from 54 African countries on teletherapy megavoltage units and brachytherapy afterloaders were extracted from the Directory for Radiotherapy Centres, an electronic, centralised, and continuously updated database of radiotherapy centres. Cancer incidence and future predictions were taken from the GLOBOCAN 2018 database of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Radiotherapy need was estimated using a 64% radiotherapy utilisation rate, while assuming a machine throughput of 500 patients per year. As of March, 2020, 28 (52%) of 54 countries had access to external beam radiotherapy, 21 (39%) had brachytherapy capacity, and no country had a capacity that matched the estimated treatment need. Median income was an important predictor of the availability of megavoltage machines: US$1883 (IQR 914-3269) in countries without any machines versus $4485 (3079-12480) in countries with at least one megavoltage machine (p=0·0003). If radiotherapy expansion continues at the rate observed over the past 7 years, it is unlikely that the continent will meet its radiotherapy needs. This access gap might impact the ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly the target to reduce preventable, premature mortality by a third, and meet the target of the cervical cancer elimination strategy of 90% with access to treatment. Urgent, novel initiatives in financing and human capacity building are needed to change the trajectory and provide comprehensive cancer care to patients in Africa in the next decade.