Yi-Ming Cao1,2, Ting-Ting Zhang1,2, Bao-Yuan Li3, Ning Qu1,2, Yong-Xue Zhu1,2. 1. Department of Head & Neck Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China. 2. Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. 3. Department of thyroid, the Affiliated Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital of Qingdao University, Yantai, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prognostic evaluation model for papillary thyroid cancer is very important for guiding the personalized treatment and follow-up strategy. There are imperfections in the system existed, and there is no suitable prognostic model for Chinese population. METHODS: This study was based on the clinic and follow-up data of 660 patients received surgical treatments in the Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center from 2000 to 2005. Cox univariate/multivariate analysis was used to explore the influence factors of prognosis, and nomogram model was performed to establish a prognostic prediction system. RESULTS: Totally, 660 patients for initial treatment were included in our analysis with a median follow-up of 113.5 months. Five-, 10- and 15-year disease-free survival rate was 95.5%, 90.2% and 89.2%. Five-, 10- and 15-year overall survival rate was 99.7%, 99.2% and 99.1%. Residual tumor was associated with overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) 20.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-187.6, P<0.05]. Age of onset (HR 2.00, 95% CI: 1.17-3.42, P<0.05) and the dimension of lymph nodes involved (0.2-3 cm: HR 3.67, 95% CI: 1.13-11.87, P<0.05; >3 cm: HR 5.20, 95% CI: 1.31-20.65, P<0.05) were independent influence factors of disease-free survival. The nomogram model for predicting prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer was established with a moderate predictive value (c-index 0.71, 95% CI: 0.57-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer is very good after appropriate treatment. Age and the dimension of lymph nodes involved were independent influence factors of disease-free survival for papillary thyroid cancer. A prognostic prediction model for Chinese population was established with moderate predictive value. A study with larger samples and including more factors of prognosis is necessary to increase the predictive value of model. 2021 Gland Surgery. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND: Prognostic evaluation model for papillary thyroid cancer is very important for guiding the personalized treatment and follow-up strategy. There are imperfections in the system existed, and there is no suitable prognostic model for Chinese population. METHODS: This study was based on the clinic and follow-up data of 660 patients received surgical treatments in the Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center from 2000 to 2005. Cox univariate/multivariate analysis was used to explore the influence factors of prognosis, and nomogram model was performed to establish a prognostic prediction system. RESULTS: Totally, 660 patients for initial treatment were included in our analysis with a median follow-up of 113.5 months. Five-, 10- and 15-year disease-free survival rate was 95.5%, 90.2% and 89.2%. Five-, 10- and 15-year overall survival rate was 99.7%, 99.2% and 99.1%. Residual tumor was associated with overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) 20.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-187.6, P<0.05]. Age of onset (HR 2.00, 95% CI: 1.17-3.42, P<0.05) and the dimension of lymph nodes involved (0.2-3 cm: HR 3.67, 95% CI: 1.13-11.87, P<0.05; >3 cm: HR 5.20, 95% CI: 1.31-20.65, P<0.05) were independent influence factors of disease-free survival. The nomogram model for predicting prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer was established with a moderate predictive value (c-index 0.71, 95% CI: 0.57-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer is very good after appropriate treatment. Age and the dimension of lymph nodes involved were independent influence factors of disease-free survival for papillary thyroid cancer. A prognostic prediction model for Chinese population was established with moderate predictive value. A study with larger samples and including more factors of prognosis is necessary to increase the predictive value of model. 2021 Gland Surgery. All rights reserved.
Entities:
Keywords:
Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC); prognostic factors; prognostic prediction model; retrospective study
Authors: Briseis A Kilfoy; Tongzhang Zheng; Theodore R Holford; Xuesong Han; Mary H Ward; Andreas Sjodin; Yaqun Zhang; Yana Bai; Cairong Zhu; Grace L Guo; Nathaniel Rothman; Yawei Zhang Journal: Cancer Causes Control Date: 2008-11-19 Impact factor: 2.506