Lianchao Zhang1, Jianghua Liu1, Virpi Lummaa2. 1. The Institute for Population & Development Studies, The School of Public Policy & Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China. 2. Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: This study provides an evolutionary perspective to a classic topic in demography, that is, the discrepancy between reproductive intention and subsequent behavior, in the context of China's two-child policy. METHODS: We conduct an event history analysis of longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the Xi'an Fertility Survey (sample size = 321 followed one-child mothers) to test the hypotheses of how within-family support/conflict affects women's fertility behavior. RESULTS: Only 50% of positive intentions (i.e., intending to have a second child) led to another (live) birth within the 3-year interval; meanwhile, 15% of uncertain intentions and 5% of negative intentions resulted in a birth. Husband's and the firstborn's emotional support raised the hazard of second childbirth along maternal life course, which cannot be fully mediated by mother's fertility intention and thus, contributed to an intention-behavior gap. Husband's sibship size had dual effects on female childbearing behavior: A positive indirect effect mediated by fertility intention, but a negative direct effect presumably due to sibling competition for intergenerational support. Finally, after controlling for fertility intention, having a firstborn son was still associated significantly with a lower second-childbirth hazard, presumably due to son preference as well as concern over parental investment. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies a discrepancy between maternal fertility intention and realized childbearing, which was partly explained by (lack of) support from other (multiple) stakeholders in family reproduction.
OBJECTIVES: This study provides an evolutionary perspective to a classic topic in demography, that is, the discrepancy between reproductive intention and subsequent behavior, in the context of China's two-child policy. METHODS: We conduct an event history analysis of longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the Xi'an Fertility Survey (sample size = 321 followed one-child mothers) to test the hypotheses of how within-family support/conflict affects women's fertility behavior. RESULTS: Only 50% of positive intentions (i.e., intending to have a second child) led to another (live) birth within the 3-year interval; meanwhile, 15% of uncertain intentions and 5% of negative intentions resulted in a birth. Husband's and the firstborn's emotional support raised the hazard of second childbirth along maternal life course, which cannot be fully mediated by mother's fertility intention and thus, contributed to an intention-behavior gap. Husband's sibship size had dual effects on female childbearing behavior: A positive indirect effect mediated by fertility intention, but a negative direct effect presumably due to sibling competition for intergenerational support. Finally, after controlling for fertility intention, having a firstborn son was still associated significantly with a lower second-childbirth hazard, presumably due to son preference as well as concern over parental investment. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies a discrepancy between maternal fertility intention and realized childbearing, which was partly explained by (lack of) support from other (multiple) stakeholders in family reproduction.