Catherine A Marco1, D Mark Courtney2, Louis J Ling3, Edward Salsberg4, Earl J Reisdorff5, Fiona E Gallahue6, Robert E Suter7, Robert Muelleman8, Bradley Chappell9, Dian Dowling Evans10, Nathan Vafaie11, Chelsea Richwine4. 1. Department of Emergency Medicine, Wright State University Boonshoft School of Medicine, Dayton, OH. Electronic address: catherine.marco@wright.edu. 2. Department of Emergency Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. 3. Department of Emergency Medicine, Hennepin County Medical Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN. 4. George Washington University Fitzhugh Mullan Institute for Health Workforce Equity, Washington, DC. 5. American Board of Emergency Medicine, East Lansing, MI. 6. Department of Emergency Medicine, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. 7. Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, TX; Department of Community Medicine, Oklahoma State University, Tulsa, OK; Department of Military Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD. 8. Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE. 9. Department of Emergency Medicine, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA. 10. Emory University Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing, Atlanta, GA. 11. Emergency Medicine Residents' Association (EMRA), Dallas, TX.
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVE: The goals of this study were to determine the current and projected supply in 2030 of contributors to emergency care, including emergency residency-trained and board-certified physicians, other physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. In addition, this study was designed to determine the current and projected demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians. METHODS: To forecast future workforce supply and demand, sources of existing data were used, assumptions based on past and potential future trends were determined, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the final forecast would be subject to variance in the baseline inputs and assumptions. Methods included: (1) estimates of the baseline workforce supply of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants; (2) estimates of future changes in the raw numbers of persons entering and leaving that workforce; (3) estimates of the productivity of the workforce; and (4) estimates of the demand for emergency care services. The methodology assumes supply equals demand in the base year and estimates the change between the base year and 2030; it then compares supply and demand in 2030 under different scenarios. RESULTS: The task force consensus was that the most likely future scenario is described by: 2% annual graduate medical education growth, 3% annual emergency physician attrition, 20% encounters seen by a nurse practitioner or physician assistant, and 11% increase in emergency department visits relative to 2018. This scenario would result in a surplus of 7,845 emergency physicians in 2030. CONCLUSION: The specialty of emergency medicine is facing the likely oversupply of emergency physicians in 2030. The factors leading to this include the increasing supply of and changing demand for emergency physicians. An organized, collective approach to a balanced workforce by the specialty of emergency medicine is imperative.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: The goals of this study were to determine the current and projected supply in 2030 of contributors to emergency care, including emergency residency-trained and board-certified physicians, other physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. In addition, this study was designed to determine the current and projected demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians. METHODS: To forecast future workforce supply and demand, sources of existing data were used, assumptions based on past and potential future trends were determined, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the final forecast would be subject to variance in the baseline inputs and assumptions. Methods included: (1) estimates of the baseline workforce supply of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants; (2) estimates of future changes in the raw numbers of persons entering and leaving that workforce; (3) estimates of the productivity of the workforce; and (4) estimates of the demand for emergency care services. The methodology assumes supply equals demand in the base year and estimates the change between the base year and 2030; it then compares supply and demand in 2030 under different scenarios. RESULTS: The task force consensus was that the most likely future scenario is described by: 2% annual graduate medical education growth, 3% annual emergency physician attrition, 20% encounters seen by a nurse practitioner or physician assistant, and 11% increase in emergency department visits relative to 2018. This scenario would result in a surplus of 7,845 emergency physicians in 2030. CONCLUSION: The specialty of emergency medicine is facing the likely oversupply of emergency physicians in 2030. The factors leading to this include the increasing supply of and changing demand for emergency physicians. An organized, collective approach to a balanced workforce by the specialty of emergency medicine is imperative.
Authors: Benjamin H Schnapp; Michael Cassara; Jonathan Fisher; Joshua Guttman; Stephanie Kayden; Sean M Kivlehan; Aaron R Kuzel; Martin A Reznek; Kimberly Schertzer; Wendy W Sun; Niels Rathlev Journal: AEM Educ Train Date: 2022-06-23
Authors: Cameron J Gettel; D Mark Courtney; Alexander T Janke; Craig Rothenberg; Angela M Mills; Wendy Sun; Arjun K Venkatesh Journal: Ann Emerg Med Date: 2022-06-16 Impact factor: 6.762