Tran Quang Thuyen1,2, Dinh Hong Duong1, Bui Thi Thuy Nga3, Nguyen Anh Ngoc3, Duong Tuan Linh3, Pham Tran Phuong3, Bui Thi Nhung3, Tran Quang Binh4,5,6. 1. Department of Epidemiology, Vietnam Military Medical University, 104 Phung Hung, Ha Dong, Hanoi, Vietnam. 2. Military Institute of Preventive Medicine, 21 Trung Liet, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam. 3. Department of Nutrition & Non-communication Disease, National Institute of Nutrition, 48B Tang Bat Ho, Hanoi, Vietnam. 4. Department of Nutrition & Non-communication Disease, National Institute of Nutrition, 48B Tang Bat Ho, Hanoi, Vietnam. tranquangbinh@dinhduong.org.vn. 5. Dinh Tien Hoang Institute of Medicine, 20 Cat Linh, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam. tranquangbinh@dinhduong.org.vn. 6. National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, 1 Yersin, Hanoi, Vietnam. tranquangbinh@dinhduong.org.vn.
Abstract
PURPOSE: We aimed to determine the incidence and prediction nomogram for new-onset metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a middle-aged Vietnamese population. METHODS: A population-based prospective study was conducted in 1150 participants aged 40-64 years without MetS at baseline and followed-up for 5 years. Data on lifestyle factors, socioeconomic status, family diabetes history, and anthropometric measures were collected. MetS incidence was estimated in general population and subgroup of age, gender, and MetS components. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for MetS. A prediction nomogram was developed and checked for discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 5.14 years, the accumulate MetS incidence rate was 23.4% (95% CI: 22.2-24.7). The annual incidence rate (95% CI) was 52.9 (46.7-60.1) per 1000 person-years in general population and higher in women [56.6 (48.7-65.9)] than men [46.5 (36.9-59.3)]. The HRs (95% CI) for developing MetS were gender [females vs males: 2.04 (1.26-3.29)], advanced age [1.02 (1.01-1.04) per one year], waist circumference [1.08 (1.06-1.10) per one cm] and other obesity-related traits, and systolic blood pressure [1.02 (1.01-1.03) per one mmHg]. The prediction nomogram for MetS had a good discrimination (C-statistics = 0.742) and fit calibration (mean absolute error = 0.009) with a positive net benefit in the predicted probability thresholds between 0.13 and 0.70. CONCLUSIONS: The study is the first to indicate an alarmingly high incidence of MetS in a middle-aged population in Vietnam. The nomogram with simply applicable variables would be useful to qualify individual risk of developing MetS.
PURPOSE: We aimed to determine the incidence and prediction nomogram for new-onset metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a middle-aged Vietnamese population. METHODS: A population-based prospective study was conducted in 1150 participants aged 40-64 years without MetS at baseline and followed-up for 5 years. Data on lifestyle factors, socioeconomic status, family diabetes history, and anthropometric measures were collected. MetS incidence was estimated in general population and subgroup of age, gender, and MetS components. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for MetS. A prediction nomogram was developed and checked for discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 5.14 years, the accumulate MetS incidence rate was 23.4% (95% CI: 22.2-24.7). The annual incidence rate (95% CI) was 52.9 (46.7-60.1) per 1000 person-years in general population and higher in women [56.6 (48.7-65.9)] than men [46.5 (36.9-59.3)]. The HRs (95% CI) for developing MetS were gender [females vs males: 2.04 (1.26-3.29)], advanced age [1.02 (1.01-1.04) per one year], waist circumference [1.08 (1.06-1.10) per one cm] and other obesity-related traits, and systolic blood pressure [1.02 (1.01-1.03) per one mmHg]. The prediction nomogram for MetS had a good discrimination (C-statistics = 0.742) and fit calibration (mean absolute error = 0.009) with a positive net benefit in the predicted probability thresholds between 0.13 and 0.70. CONCLUSIONS: The study is the first to indicate an alarmingly high incidence of MetS in a middle-aged population in Vietnam. The nomogram with simply applicable variables would be useful to qualify individual risk of developing MetS.
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