Effects of land use transition on ecological vulnerability in poverty-stricken mountainous areas of China: A complex network approach.

Poverty-stricken mountainous areas are often subject to ecological vulnerability, and land use transition is a major factor affecting that vulnerability. Land use transition forms a complex network comprised of different land use types which interact with each other and respond to external environment processes, resulting in dynamics. This study develops complex network approach with cascade failure model to quantitatively explore the effects of land use transition on ecological vulnerability from the holistic and dynamic perspective. The study analyzes the characteristics of land use transition, identifying key transition types and simulating their impact on ecological vulnerability in 16 poverty-stricken mountainous counties in western Hubei Province, China, with the following findings. (1) The heterogeneity of change in agricultural land and construction land is significant; from 1990 to 2015, a short-term increase in the amount of agricultural land is followed by a gradual reduction, while the amount of construction land increased continuously. (2) Agricultural land is the dominant output land type, exported mainly to construction land and water area, and construction land is the dominant input land type, imported mainly from agricultural land. Sparse woods, woods, and dryland are the key land use types in the study area. (3) the critical points for maintaining resilience of ecosystem are 80% or higher for cultivated land and 80% or higher for woodland. (4) For the tolerance parameter α, 20% increase in cultivated land and a 10% increase in woodland would enhance ecosystem resilience and reduce its damage degree to corresponding land use transition. These findings are important points of reference for the sustainable management of poverty-stricken mountainous counties in western Hubei Province and in China more generally. They also have policy implications for land resources, especially in terms of the alleviation of poverty and the coordination between ecological protection and economic development.