Water quality thresholds for coastal contaminant impacts on corals: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Reduced water quality degrades coral reefs, resulting in compromised ecosystem function and services to coastal communities. Increasing management capacity on reefs requires prioritization of the development of data-based water-quality thresholds and tipping points. To meet this urgent need of marine resource managers, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis that quantified the effects on scleractinian corals of chemical pollutants from land-based and atmospheric sources. We compiled a global dataset addressing the effects of these pollutants on coral growth, mortality, reproduction, physiology, and behavior. The resulting quantitative review of 55 articles includes information about industrial sources, modes of action, experimentally tested concentrations, and previously identified tolerance thresholds of corals to 13 metals, 18 pesticides, 5 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB), and a pharmaceutical. For data-rich contaminants, we make more robust threshold estimates by adapting models for Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis that were originally developed for biopharmaceutical application. These models use information from multiple studies to characterize the dose-response relationships (i.e., Emax curves) between a pollutant's concentration and various measures of coral health. Metals used in antifouling paints, especially copper, have received a great deal of attention to-date, thus enabling us to estimate the cumulative impact of copper across coral's early life-history. The effects of other land-based pollutants on corals are comparatively understudied, which precludes more quantitative analysis. We discuss opportunities to improve future research so that it can be better integrated into quantitative assessments of the effects of more pollutant types on sublethal coral stress-responses. We also recommend that managers use this information to establish more conservative water quality thresholds that account for the synergistic effects of multiple pollutants on coral reefs. Ultimately, active remediation of local stressors will improve the resistance, resilience, and recovery of individual reefs and reef ecosystems facing the global threat of climate change.