Cardiovascular event risk estimation among residents of a rural setting in Bayelsa state, Nigeria.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a leading cause of death worldwide. There is a rising prevalence of CVDs in Nigeria, including in rural communities. The present study assessed the total CVD risk among two rural communities in Bayelsa State, South-south Nigeria. Adults aged ≥ 40 years in 264 randomly selected households in two rural communities in Bayelsa State were interviewed in this descriptive cross-sectional survey. Using a structured questionnaire, data on socio-demographic characteristics, anthropometry, blood pressure (BP) and random blood sugar measurements were obtained. The WHO/ISH risk assessment chart for the African sub-region was used to estimate the 10-year total risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events using five predictor variables: age, gender, smoking, systolic BP, and coexistence of diabetes mellitus (DM). Of the 264 participants, majority was men (70.1%) and married (93.2%). Mean age was 50.9±8.1 years. Most participants were overweight (53.4%), add salt to food on table (97.0%), lead a sedentary lifestyle (79.2%) and greater than a third of participants (36.7%) were known hypertensive patients. Using the WHO/ISH risk prediction chart for Africa, 90.0% and 10.0% of the study population had low and moderate risk, respectively of developing cardiovascular events in 10 years. As the age of participants increases, the 10-year risk of a cardiovascular event increased (X 2-48.9; P-0.001). History of hypertension (X 2-20.0; P-0.001), DM (X 2-5.87; P-0.016) and smoking (X 2-23.42; P-0.001) were significantly related to the level of 10-year cardiovascular event risk. Sex showed no significant relationship. There is a high prevalence of several cardiovascular risk factors in this rural population, though the 10-year risk of CV event is still low. CVD risk in rural communities requires awareness, monitoring and an integrated approach in their prevention, detection, and treatment. AJCD