| Literature DB >> 34307391 |
Martina A Maibach1, Ahmed Allam2, Matthias P Hilty1, Nicolas A Perez Gonzalez2, Philipp K Buehler1, Pedro D Wendel Garcia1, Silvio D Brugger3, Christoph C Ganter1, Michael Krauthammer2, Reto A Schuepbach1, Jan Bartussek1,2.
Abstract
The continued digitalization of medicine has led to an increased availability of longitudinal patient data that allows the investigation of novel and known diseases in unprecedented detail. However, to accurately describe any underlying pathophysiology and allow inter-patient comparisons, individual patient trajectories have to be synchronized based on temporal markers. In this pilot study, we use longitudinal data from critically ill ICU COVID-19 patients to compare the commonly used alignment markers "onset of symptoms," "hospital admission," and "ICU admission" with a novel objective method based on the peak value of the inflammatory marker C-reactive protein (CRP). By applying our CRP-based method to align the progression of neutrophils and lymphocytes, we were able to define a pathophysiological window that improved mortality risk stratification in our COVID-19 patient cohort. Our data highlights that proper synchronization of longitudinal patient data is crucial for accurate interpatient comparisons and the definition of relevant subgroups. The use of objective temporal disease markers will facilitate both translational research efforts and multicenter trials.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; biomarker; digitalization; longitudinal data; patient trajectories; risk stratification; subgroup comparison; synchronization
Year: 2021 PMID: 34307391 PMCID: PMC8295502 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.607594
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Med (Lausanne) ISSN: 2296-858X
Figure 1Pathophysiological synchronization of COVID-19 trajectories improves subgroup distinction. (A) Individual patient trajectories of 28 severe ICU COVID-19 patients. (B) Simulation illustrating the effect of pooling temporally shifted data. Left: Simulation of peaking biomarker progression, 100 identical time courses with maximum value scattered around day 10 (normally distributed, σ = 1.5, one sampling per day). Dark gray line: true progression without temporal scatter; light gray lines: 10 randomly selected curves of the simulation; yellow line: median ± MAD (median absolute deviation) of the 100 simulated curves. Middle panels: Gray lines represent two identical curves that differ in height by 50%. Light colored curves: σ = 1.5, dark colored curves σ = 0.75. Right: Boxplot comparison of the simulated curves in the middle panels at time point 10 days. (C) Heat plot of average measurement frequency around ICU admission. (D,E) Time course of CRP overall (D) and CRP and NLR in severity subgroups (E). Synchronization based on onset of symptoms resulted in the exclusion of two deceased patients due to unclear data. Data is shown as median ± MAD. Curves are cut-off when data of fewer than three patients was available. The respective patient numbers are shown in the bottom panels. (F) Subgroup comparison of each alignment method at time point 0 for CRPmax-based, hospital and ICU admission-based and time point +5 days for onset of symptoms based alignment (indicated by the gray line in subfigure E). Multiple comparison testing with Tukey post-hoc test was performed on single time points. ns = not significant, *p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤ 0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001.
Patient characteristics at ICU admission.
| 65.5 (11.4) | 67.8 (12.8) | 62.6 (9.5) | 68.5 (13.3) | 0.46 | |
| 0.8 (0.4) | 0.7 (0.5) | 0.8 (0.4) | 1.0 (0.0) | 0.26 | |
| 28.1 (4.2) | 30.3 (5.5) | 27.4 (3.4) | 26.4 (2.0) | 0.15 | |
| 17 (60.7) | 4 (44.4) | 8 (61.5) | 5 (83.3) | 0.32 | |
| 8 (28.6) | 2 (22.2) | 3 (23.1) | 3 (50.0) | 0.42 | |
| 1 (3.6) | 1 (11.1) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0.33 | |
| 9 (32.1) | 1 (11.1) | 5 (38.5) | 3 (50.0) | 0.23 | |
| 5 (17.9) | 2 (22.2) | 2 (15.4) | 1 (16.7) | 0.92 | |
| 11 (39.3) | 3 (33.3) | 4 (30.8) | 4 (66.7) | 0.30 | |
| 5.6 (5.0) | 5.9 (4.8) | 5.2 (5.8) | 6.2 (4.5) | 0.92 | |
| 3.0 (5.0) | 3.9 (6.2) | 3.2 (5.2) | 1.3 (1.8) | 0.63 | |
| 12.6 (11.3) | 8.4 (17.0) | 14.5 (7.9) | 13.8 (8.8) | 0.53 | |
| 17.5 (8.0) | 11.8 (7.0) | 18.8 (6.9) | 23.3 (6.6) | 0.01 | |
| 57.5 (19.9) | 43.2 (18.1) | 60.6 (17.5) | 72.2 (15.4) | 0.01 | |
| 13.0 (4.6) | 9.9 (4.7) | 14.2 (4.1) | 15.0 (3.5) | 0.04 |
Non-binary data is shown as mean (SD) and binary data as mean (%). p-Values indicate one-way ANOVA for normally distributed data, Kruskal-Wallis-test for non-normally distributed data and χ.
Figure 2Timer-based risk stratification could improve outcome prediction. (A) Graphical representation of the data set generation and the applied 5-fold cross validation model. (B,C) Mean accuracy performance (B) and mean Macro-f1 score (C) of ICU admission or CRPmax anchoring. Data is reported as mean ± SD. (D,E) Confusion matrices constructed from the best performing trained model of each fold using the test data from all 5-folds of the ICU admission anchored (D) or CRPmax anchored (E) window size 1 data set.