[A multilevel analysis of population and deforestation in the Sierra de Lacandon National Park, Peten, Guatemala].

The paper examines depopulation factors associated with deforestation in the Natural park of the Sierra de Lacandón (PNSL), using multilevel regresión analysis.More than 10 percent of the park area has been deforested since the mid 1980s because of rural population growth and agricultural practices. By means of a two-level regression analysis the study use dem ographic and other household data to explain variations in deforested land in 241 agricultural estates in 8 communities of the PNSL. The methodology, not applied before in the tropics, takes into account spatial variations between communities and households. Multilvel regression allows for better results on the impacts of socioeconomic factors on deforestation, both at the community and at the household levels with important implications for development policies.