Jessica A Heerde1, Jennifer A Bailey2, Adrian B Kelly3, Barbara J McMorris4, George C Patton5, John W Toumbourou6. 1. Department of Paediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Honorary Research Fellow, The Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Australia. Electronic address: jessica.heerde@unimelb.edu.au. 2. Social Development Research Group, School of Social Work, University of Washington, USA. 3. School of Psychology and Counselling, Queensland University of Technology, Australia. 4. School of Nursing, University of Minnesota, USA. 5. Professorial Fellow in Adolescent Health Research, Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Australia. 6. Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Deakin University; and Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Australia.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Internationally, the prevalence of young adult homelessness is concerning. Few data on life-course predictors from longitudinal studies exist, limiting our capacity to inform prevention strategies at the population-level. METHODS: Data were drawn from a state representative population-based sample of young adults from Victoria, Australia participating in the International Youth Development Study (IYDS; N = 927, 54% female). Participants were recruited in state-representative secondary school samples at Grade 7 (age 13, 2002), with follow-up in Grades 9 (age 15) and 11 (age 17) and at ages 21, 23 and 25. Using longitudinal path modelling, we conducted a series of analyses testing life-course predictors of young adult homelessness across multiple socializing contexts, and the interrelationships among them. RESULTS: The rate of young adult homelessness was 5.5%. Path modelling showed higher levels of family conflict at ages 13 and 15 uniquely predicted homelessness by age 25. This effect remained after accounting for other risk factors in peer-group (e.g., interactions with antisocial peers), school (e.g., low academic performance), and community contexts (e.g., low neighborhood attachment). Peer drug use and interaction with antisocial peers at age 15 mediated the association between family conflict at age 13 and homelessness by age 25. CONCLUSIONS: Findings point to the vulnerability of early adolescents to family conflict. This vulnerability heightens risk for young adult homelessness. Findings strengthen the case for both primary prevention programs that build healthy relationships between family members from early on in adolescence and for investment in homelessness prevention at key developmental periods.
INTRODUCTION: Internationally, the prevalence of young adult homelessness is concerning. Few data on life-course predictors from longitudinal studies exist, limiting our capacity to inform prevention strategies at the population-level. METHODS: Data were drawn from a state representative population-based sample of young adults from Victoria, Australia participating in the International Youth Development Study (IYDS; N = 927, 54% female). Participants were recruited in state-representative secondary school samples at Grade 7 (age 13, 2002), with follow-up in Grades 9 (age 15) and 11 (age 17) and at ages 21, 23 and 25. Using longitudinal path modelling, we conducted a series of analyses testing life-course predictors of young adult homelessness across multiple socializing contexts, and the interrelationships among them. RESULTS: The rate of young adult homelessness was 5.5%. Path modelling showed higher levels of family conflict at ages 13 and 15 uniquely predicted homelessness by age 25. This effect remained after accounting for other risk factors in peer-group (e.g., interactions with antisocial peers), school (e.g., low academic performance), and community contexts (e.g., low neighborhood attachment). Peer drug use and interaction with antisocial peers at age 15 mediated the association between family conflict at age 13 and homelessness by age 25. CONCLUSIONS: Findings point to the vulnerability of early adolescents to family conflict. This vulnerability heightens risk for young adult homelessness. Findings strengthen the case for both primary prevention programs that build healthy relationships between family members from early on in adolescence and for investment in homelessness prevention at key developmental periods.
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Authors: George C Patton; Susan M Sawyer; John S Santelli; David A Ross; Rima Afifi; Nicholas B Allen; Monika Arora; Peter Azzopardi; Wendy Baldwin; Christopher Bonell; Ritsuko Kakuma; Elissa Kennedy; Jaqueline Mahon; Terry McGovern; Ali H Mokdad; Vikram Patel; Suzanne Petroni; Nicola Reavley; Kikelomo Taiwo; Jane Waldfogel; Dakshitha Wickremarathne; Carmen Barroso; Zulfiqar Bhutta; Adesegun O Fatusi; Amitabh Mattoo; Judith Diers; Jing Fang; Jane Ferguson; Frederick Ssewamala; Russell M Viner Journal: Lancet Date: 2016-05-09 Impact factor: 79.321