Gonzalo Salazar de Pablo1,2,3, Joaquim Radua1,4,5, Joana Pereira6, Ilaria Bonoldi7, Vincenzo Arienti8, Filippo Besana8, Livia Soardo8, Anna Cabras9, Lydia Fortea4,10, Ana Catalan1,11, Julio Vaquerizo-Serrano7,2,3, Francesco Coronelli8, Simi Kaur1, Josette Da Silva1, Jae Il Shin12, Marco Solmi1,13, Natascia Brondino8, Pierluigi Politi8, Philip McGuire7,14, Paolo Fusar-Poli1,8,14. 1. Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King's College London, London, United Kingdom. 2. Institute of Psychiatry and Mental Health, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón School of Medicine, Universidad Complutense, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón (IiSGM), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Madrid, Spain. 3. Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London, London, United Kingdom. 4. Imaging of Mood- and Anxiety-Related Disorders (IMARD) Group, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Barcelona, Spain. 5. Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Centre for Psychiatric Research and Education, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. 6. Centro Hospitalar Psiquiátrico de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal. 7. Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Department of Psychosis Studies, King's College London, London, United Kingdom. 8. Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy. 9. Department of Neurology and Psychiatry, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy. 10. Institute of Neurosciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 11. Mental Health Department, Biocruces Bizkaia Health Research Institute, Basurto University Hospital, Facultad de Medicina y Odontología, Campus de Leioa, University of the Basque Country, UPV/EHU, Bizkaia, Spain. 12. Department of Paediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 13. Neurosciences Department, University of Padova, Padova, Italy. 14. OASIS service, South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom.
Abstract
Importance: Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research. Objective: To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P. Data Sources: PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles. Study Selection: Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves. Main Outcome and Measures: Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted. Results: A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population.
Importance: Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research. Objective: To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P. Data Sources: PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles. Study Selection: Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves. Main Outcome and Measures: Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted. Results: A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population.
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