Literature DB >> 34250967

A Bayesian Model to Predict COVID-19 Severity in Children.

Sara Domínguez-Rodríguez1,2,3, Serena Villaverde1,2,3, Francisco J Sanz-Santaeufemia4, Carlos Grasa2,5, Antoni Soriano-Arandes6, Jesús Saavedra-Lozano7, Victoria Fumadó8, Cristina Epalza1,2,3, Miquel Serna-Pascual1,2,3, José A Alonso-Cadenas4, Paula Rodríguez-Molino2,5, Joan Pujol-Morro6, David Aguilera-Alonso7, Silvia Simó8, Sara Villanueva-Medina1,2,3, M Isabel Iglesias-Bouzas9, M José Mellado4, Blanca Herrero4, Susana Melendo6, Mercedes De la Torre4, Teresa Del Rosal2,5, Pere Soler-Palacin6, Cristina Calvo4, María Urretavizcaya-Martínez10, Marta Pareja11, Fátima Ara-Montojo12, Yolanda Ruiz Del Prado13, Nerea Gallego14, Marta Illán Ramos15, Elena Cobos1,2,3, Alfredo Tagarro1,2,3,16, Cinta Moraleda1,2,3.   

Abstract

BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify risk factors causing critical disease in hospitalized children with COVID-19 and to build a predictive model to anticipate the probability of need for critical care.
METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, prospective study of children with SARS-CoV-2 infection in 52 Spanish hospitals. The primary outcome was the need for critical care. We used a multivariable Bayesian model to estimate the probability of needing critical care.
RESULTS: The study enrolled 350 children from March 12, 2020, to July 1, 2020: 292 (83.4%) and 214 (73.7%) were considered to have relevant COVID-19, of whom 24.2% required critical care. Four major clinical syndromes of decreasing severity were identified: multi-inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) (17.3%), bronchopulmonary (51.4%), gastrointestinal (11.6%), and mild syndrome (19.6%). Main risk factors were high C-reactive protein and creatinine concentration, lymphopenia, low platelets, anemia, tachycardia, age, neutrophilia, leukocytosis, and low oxygen saturation. These risk factors increased the risk of critical disease depending on the syndrome: the more severe the syndrome, the more risk the factors conferred. Based on our findings, we developed an online risk prediction tool (https://rserver.h12o.es/pediatria/EPICOAPP/, username: user, password: 0000).
CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include inflammation, cytopenia, age, comorbidities, and organ dysfunction. The more severe the syndrome, the more the risk factor increases the risk of critical illness. Risk of severe disease can be predicted with a Bayesian model.
Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Entities:  

Year:  2021        PMID: 34250967     DOI: 10.1097/INF.0000000000003204

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Pediatr Infect Dis J        ISSN: 0891-3668            Impact factor:   2.129


  3 in total

1.  MedML: Fusing medical knowledge and machine learning models for early pediatric COVID-19 hospitalization and severity prediction.

Authors:  Junyi Gao; Chaoqi Yang; Joerg Heintz; Scott Barrows; Elise Albers; Mary Stapel; Sara Warfield; Adam Cross; Jimeng Sun
Journal:  iScience       Date:  2022-08-17

2.  Symptom-Based Predictive Model of COVID-19 Disease in Children.

Authors:  Jesús M Antoñanzas; Aida Perramon; Cayetana López; Mireia Boneta; Cristina Aguilera; Ramon Capdevila; Anna Gatell; Pepe Serrano; Miriam Poblet; Dolors Canadell; Mònica Vilà; Georgina Catasús; Cinta Valldepérez; Martí Català; Pere Soler-Palacín; Clara Prats; Antoni Soriano-Arandes
Journal:  Viruses       Date:  2021-12-30       Impact factor: 5.048

3.  American College of Rheumatology Clinical Guidance for Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children Associated With SARS-CoV-2 and Hyperinflammation in Pediatric COVID-19: Version 3.

Authors:  Lauren A Henderson; Scott W Canna; Kevin G Friedman; Mark Gorelik; Sivia K Lapidus; Hamid Bassiri; Edward M Behrens; Kate F Kernan; Grant S Schulert; Philip Seo; Mary Beth F Son; Adriana H Tremoulet; Christina VanderPluym; Rae S M Yeung; Amy S Mudano; Amy S Turner; David R Karp; Jay J Mehta
Journal:  Arthritis Rheumatol       Date:  2022-02-03       Impact factor: 15.483

  3 in total

北京卡尤迪生物科技股份有限公司 © 2022-2023.