Federico E Vaca1, Kaigang Li1,2,3, Xiang Gao2, Katie Zagnoli4, Haonan Wang4, Denise L Haynie5, James C Fell6, Bruce Simons-Morton5, Eduardo Romano7. 1. Department of Emergency Medicine, Developmental Neurocognitive Driving Simulation Research Center (DrivSim Lab), Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut. 2. Department of Health & Exercise Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. 3. Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado. 4. Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. 5. Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development, Rockville, Maryland. 6. NORC at the University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. 7. Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Beltsville, Maryland.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Novice drivers who delay in driving licensure may miss safety benefits of Graduate Driver Licensing (GDL) programs, potentially putting themselves at higher crash-risk. Time to licensure relates their access to independent transportation to potential future economic- and educational-related opportunities. The objective of this study was to explore time to licensure associations with teens' race/ethnicity and GDL restrictions. METHODS: Secondary analysis using all seven annual assessments of the NEXT Generation Health Study, a nationally representative longitudinal study starting with 10th grade (N = 2785; 2009-2010 school year). Data were collected in U.S. public/private schools, colleges, workplaces, and other settings. The outcome variable was interval-censored time to licensure (event = obtained driving licensure). Independent variables included race/ethnicity and state-specific GDL restrictions. Covariates included family affluence, parent education, nativity, sex, and urbanicity. Proportional hazards (PH) models were conducted for interval-censored survival analysis based on stepwise backward elimination for fitting multivariate models with consideration of complex survey features. In the PH models, a hazard ratio (HR) estimates a greater (>1) or lesser (<1) likelihood of licensure at all timepoints. RESULTS: Median time to licensure after reaching legal driving age for Latinos, African Americans, and Non-Latino Whites was 3.47, 2.90, and 0.41 years, respectively. Multivariate PH models showed that Latinos were 46% less likely (HR = 0.54, 95%CI: 0.35-0.72) and African Americans were 56% less likely (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.32-0.56) to have obtained licensure at any time compared to Non-Latino Whites. Only learner minimum age GDL restriction was associated with time to licensure. Living in a state with a required learner driving minimum age of ≥16 years (HR = 0.57, 95%CI: 0.16-0.98) also corresponded with 43% lower likelihood of licensure at legal eligibility compared to living in other states with a required learner driving minimum age of <16 years. CONCLUSION: Latinos and African American teens obtained their license approximately three years after eligibility on average, and much later than Non-Latino Whites. Time to licensure likelihood was associated with race/ethnicity and required minimum age of learner permit, indicating important implications for teens of different racial/ethnic groups in relation to licensure, access to independent transportation, and exposure to GDL programs.
OBJECTIVE: Novice drivers who delay in driving licensure may miss safety benefits of Graduate Driver Licensing (GDL) programs, potentially putting themselves at higher crash-risk. Time to licensure relates their access to independent transportation to potential future economic- and educational-related opportunities. The objective of this study was to explore time to licensure associations with teens' race/ethnicity and GDL restrictions. METHODS: Secondary analysis using all seven annual assessments of the NEXT Generation Health Study, a nationally representative longitudinal study starting with 10th grade (N = 2785; 2009-2010 school year). Data were collected in U.S. public/private schools, colleges, workplaces, and other settings. The outcome variable was interval-censored time to licensure (event = obtained driving licensure). Independent variables included race/ethnicity and state-specific GDL restrictions. Covariates included family affluence, parent education, nativity, sex, and urbanicity. Proportional hazards (PH) models were conducted for interval-censored survival analysis based on stepwise backward elimination for fitting multivariate models with consideration of complex survey features. In the PH models, a hazard ratio (HR) estimates a greater (>1) or lesser (<1) likelihood of licensure at all timepoints. RESULTS: Median time to licensure after reaching legal driving age for Latinos, African Americans, and Non-Latino Whites was 3.47, 2.90, and 0.41 years, respectively. Multivariate PH models showed that Latinos were 46% less likely (HR = 0.54, 95%CI: 0.35-0.72) and African Americans were 56% less likely (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.32-0.56) to have obtained licensure at any time compared to Non-Latino Whites. Only learner minimum age GDL restriction was associated with time to licensure. Living in a state with a required learner driving minimum age of ≥16 years (HR = 0.57, 95%CI: 0.16-0.98) also corresponded with 43% lower likelihood of licensure at legal eligibility compared to living in other states with a required learner driving minimum age of <16 years. CONCLUSION: Latinos and African American teens obtained their license approximately three years after eligibility on average, and much later than Non-Latino Whites. Time to licensure likelihood was associated with race/ethnicity and required minimum age of learner permit, indicating important implications for teens of different racial/ethnic groups in relation to licensure, access to independent transportation, and exposure to GDL programs.
Entities:
Keywords:
Graduate driver licensing; novice drivers; survival analysis; time to licensure
Authors: Federico E Vaca; Kaigang Li; Selam Tewahade; James C Fell; Denise L Haynie; Bruce G Simons-Morton; Eduardo Romano Journal: J Adolesc Health Date: 2020-07-06 Impact factor: 5.012