| Literature DB >> 34230447 |
Ying-Zhou Ge1,2,3, Chen Zhang1,2,3, Yan-Qing Cai1,2,3, He-Feng Huang1,2,3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND Since China has not yet constructed its own risk assessment model (RAM) for pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism (VTE), more and more hospitals use the RCOG RAM for VTE risk prediction. However, the RCOG RAM was established based on Western populations, and its applicability in China is still uncertain. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the validity of the RCOG RAM in predicting postpartum VTE in Chinese maternity. MATERIAL AND METHODS This retrospective case-control study was conducted at the International Peace Maternity and Child Health Hospital (IPMCHH) from June 2016 to June 2020. The VTE group consisted of 38 women with postpartum VTE. For each VTE patient, 4 women without VTE who gave birth on the same day were randomly selected as the control group (n=152). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination, accuracy, and validity of the RCOG RAM. Univariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to identify other related factors for postpartum VTE. RESULTS Compared with the low-risk group, the risk of VTE was 9.75-fold greater in the intermediate-risk group, and 90.00-fold greater in the high-risk group. The area under curve (AUC) of the model was 0.828 (95% CI: 0.762-0.894), with a score of 2 as its best cut-off value, which exactly matched the criterion recommended by the RCOG guidelines for pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. The calibration curves and DCA of the model also showed good accuracy. In addition to the factors included in the RCOG RAM, glucocorticoid therapy during pregnancy (adjusted OR=6.72, 95% CI: 1.56-28.91) and previous use of IUD (adjusted OR=7.11, 95% CI: 1.45-34.93) were associated with increased risk of postpartum VTE. CONCLUSIONS The RCOG RAM was found to be effective in predicting postpartum VTE, and has certain guiding significance for postpartum thromboprophylaxis in China.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34230447 PMCID: PMC8274362 DOI: 10.12659/MSM.929904
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Med Sci Monit ISSN: 1234-1010
Figure 1Flow chart.
Socio-demographic characteristics of women in the VTE group and control group.
| Variable | VTE group | Control group | χ2/t | p Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age, year | 33.92±1.65 | 31.40±0.66 | 3.23 | 0.006 |
| BMI, kg/m2 | 22.78±0.97 | 21.88±0.56 | 1.47 | 0.144 |
| Birthplace | 5.13 | 0.024 | ||
| Shanghai | 23 (60.53) | 61 (40.13) | ||
| Outside of Shanghai | 15 (39.47) | 91 (59.87) | ||
| Educational level | 4.41 | 0.111 | ||
| University or above | 20 (52.63) | 103 (67.76) | ||
| High school | 13 (34.21) | 41 (26.97) | ||
| Middle school or lower | 5 (13.16) | 8 (5.26) | ||
| Occupation | 2.26 | 0.133 | ||
| Employed | 32 (84.21) | 142 (93.42) | ||
| Unemployed | 6 (15.79) | 10 (6.58) |
VTE – venous thromboembolism; BMI – body mass index.
Data are presented as mean ± standard deviation or number (percentage).
Risk factors for postpartum VTE contained in the RCOG risk assessment model.
| Variable | VTE group | Control group | χ2 | p Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous VTE not related to major surgery | 4 (10.53) | 0 (0.00) | 10.35 | 0.001 |
| Medical comorbidities | 2 (5.26) | 3 (1.97) | 1.19 | 0.276 |
| Family history of VTE | 8 (21.05) | 10 (6.58) | 6.68 | 0.010 |
| Known low-risk thrombophilia | 4 (10.53) | 2 (1.32) | 6.03 | 0.014 |
| Age >35 years | 14 (36.84) | 25 (16.45) | 7.33 | 0.007 |
| Obesity | 0.05 | 0.978 | ||
| BMI ≥30 | 1 (2.63) | 5 (3.29) | ||
| BMI ≥40 | 0 (0.00) | 1 (0.66) | ||
| Parity >3 | 1 (2.63) | 4 (2.63) | 0.00 | 1.000 |
| Smoker | 3 (7.89) | 2 (1.32) | 3.99 | 0.046 |
| Gross varicose veins | 1 (2.63) | 1 (0.66) | 0.97 | 0.324 |
| Pre-eclampsia | 2 (5.26) | 10 (6.58) | 0.09 | 0.766 |
| Multiple pregnancy | 4 (10.53) | 3 (1.97) | 5.03 | 0.025 |
| Cesarean section in labor | 18 (47.37) | 20 (13.16) | 19.46 | <0.001 |
| Elective cesarean section | 17 (44.74) | 71 (46.71) | 0.05 | 0.827 |
| Mid-cavity or rotational operative delivery | 0 (0.00) | 9 (5.92) | 1.23 | 0.267 |
| Prolonged labor (>24 hours) | 0 (0.00) | 3 (1.97) | 0.00 | 1.000 |
| PPH (>1 litre or transfusion) | 1 (2.63) | 5 (3.29) | 0.04 | 0.836 |
| Preterm birth <37+0 weeks | 4 (10.53) | 5 (3.29) | 3.17 | 0.075 |
| Surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium | 6 (15.79) | 4 (2.63) | 8.25 | 0.004 |
| Current systemic infection | 4 (10.53) | 7 (4.61) | 1.85 | 0.174 |
| Immobility, dehydration | 2 (5.26) | 2 (1.32) | 1.97 | 0.161 |
VTE – venous thromboembolism; BMI – body mass index; PPH – postpartum hemorrhage.
Previous VTE provoked by major surgery, known high-risk thrombophilia, stillbirth, and hyperemesis are also factors contained in the RCOG risk assessment model, but they did not exist in our study population, thus they are not included in the table.
data are presented as number (percentage).
RCOG risk score and risk level of women in the VTE group and control group.
| VTE group | Control group | OR | 95% CI | p Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (mean±SD) | 3.74±0.74 | 1.49±0.22 | 2.04 | [1.57, 2.64] | <0.001 |
| Risk level, n (%) | <0.001 | ||||
| Low risk | 4 (10.53) | 90 (59.21) | Reference | ||
| Intermediate risk | 26 (68.42) | 60 (39.47) | 9.75 | [3.24, 29.36] | |
| High risk | 8 (21.05) | 2 (1.32) | 90.00 | [14.22, 569.52] |
VTE – venous thromboembolism; SD – standard deviation; OR – odd ratio; CI – confidence interval.
Figure 2The distribution of the women in each score segment according to the RCOG assessment model. (A) Histogram of RCOG score (n=190). (B) Rates of VTE in each RCOG score segment.
Figure 3ROC curve, calibration plot and DCA of the RCOG risk assessment model. (A) ROC curve of the RCOG RAM. The AUC was 0.828 (95% CI: 0.762–0.894), and the Youden index was 0.50. (B) Calibration plot of the RCOG RAM. The apparent (thin dotted line) and bias-corrected (black solid line) nonparametric smoothed calibration curves are shown. (C) DCA of the RCOG RAM. The gray and black solid lines represent the net benefit of the strategy of treating all patients and no patients, respectively.
Other clinical features and D-dimer of women in the VTE group and control group.
| Variable | VTE group | Control group | χ2/Z | p Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravidity | 3.20 | 0.202 | ||
| 1 | 15 (39.47) | 80 (52.63) | ||
| 2 | 10 (26.32) | 40 (26.32) | ||
| ≥3 | 13 (34.21) | 32 (21.05) | ||
| Number of spontaneous abortions | 7.42 | 0.024 | ||
| 0 | 31 (81.58) | 127 (83.55) | ||
| 1 | 2 (5.26) | 21 (13.82) | ||
| ≥2 | 5 (13.16) | 4 (2.63) | ||
| Number of voluntary termination of pregnancy | 1.17 | 0.559 | ||
| 0 | 28 (73.68) | 113 (74.34) | ||
| 1 | 6 (15.79) | 30 (19.74) | ||
| ≥2 | 4 (10.53) | 9 (5.92) | ||
| Endometriosis | 5 (13.16) | 5 (3.29) | 5.11 | 0.024 |
| PCOS | 1 (2.63) | 6 (3.95) | 0.15 | 0.702 |
| Never/condoms/calendar rhythm method/withdrawal method | 24 (63.16) | 126 (82.89) | 6.77 | 0.009 |
| Oral contraceptive pills | 13 (34.21) | 21 (13.82) | 8.04 | 0.005 |
| IUD | 7 (18.42) | 3 (1.97) | 11.34 | 0.001 |
| ART | 5 (13.16) | 19 (12.50) | 0.01 | 0.913 |
| Progesterone therapy during early pregnancy | 13 (34.21) | 36 (23.68) | 1.74 | 0.187 |
| Glucocorticoid therapy during pregnancy | 7 (18.42) | 6 (3.95) | 8.33 | 0.004 |
| GDM | 8 (21.05) | 33 (21.71) | 0.01 | 0.930 |
| Gestational hypertension | 5 (13.16) | 13 (8.55) | 0.74 | 0.390 |
| Family history of diabetes | 8 (21.05) | 10 (6.58) | 6.68 | 0.010 |
| Family history of hypertension | 8 (21.05) | 30 (19.74) | 0.03 | 0.856 |
| D-dimer at 12 weeks (mg/ml) | 0.67 (0.50–0.99) | 0.66 (0.50–0.79) | 0.300 | |
| D-dimer at 34 weeks (mg/ml) | 1.29 (0.94–1.72) | 1.16 (0.88–1.74) | 0.305 | |
| D-dimer before delivery (mg/ml) | 2.13 (1.32–3.15) | 1.72 (1.17–2.66) | 0.043 | |
| D-dimer at 1st day after delivery (mg/ml) | 4.86 (3.36–7.11) | 3.74 (2.53–5.13) | 0.006 | |
| D-dimer at 3rd day after delivery (mg/ml) | 2.71 (1.65–4.09) | 1.99 (1.38–2.74) | 0.008 | |
VTE – venous thromboembolism; PCOS – polycystic ovarian syndrome; IUD – intrauterine device; ART – assisted reproductive technology; GDM – gestational diabetes mellitus.
Data are presented as number (percentage) or median (interquartile range).
Multivariable logistic regression analysis of risk factors for postpartum VTE.
| Adjusted OR | 95% CI | p Value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCOG risk level | <0.001 | ||
| Low risk | Reference | ||
| Intermediate risk | 8.39 | [2.64, 26.60] | |
| High risk | 118.23 | [18.05, 774.46] | |
| IUD | 0.016 | ||
| No | Reference | ||
| Yes | 7.11 | [1.45, 34.93] | |
| Glucocorticoid therapy during pregnancy | 0.010 | ||
| No | Reference | ||
| Yes | 6.72 | [1.56, 28.91] |
VTE – venous thromboembolism; IUD – intrauterine device; OR – odd ratio; CI – confidence interval.
The RCOG risk assessment model for VTE.
| Risk factors for VTE | Score |
|---|---|
| Previous VTE (except a single event related to major surgery) | 4 |
| Previous VTE provoked by major surgery | 3 |
| Known high-risk thrombophilia | 3 |
| Medical comorbidities (e.g. cancer, heart failure; active systemic lupus erythematosus, Inflammatory polyarthropathy or inflammatory bowel disease; nephrotic syndrome; type I diabetes mellitus with nephropathy; sickle cell disease; current intravenous drug user) | 3 |
| Family history of unprovoked or estrogen-related VTE in first-degree relative | 1 |
| Known low-risk thrombophilia (no VTE) | 1 |
| Age (>35 years) | 1 |
| Obesity | |
| BMI ≥30 | 1 |
| BMI ≥40 | 2 |
| Parity ≥3 | 1 |
| Smoker | 1 |
| Gross varicose veins | 1 |
| Pre-eclampsia in current pregnancy | 1 |
| ART/IVF (antenatal only) | 1 |
| Multiple pregnancy | 1 |
| Cesarean section in labor | 2 |
| Elective cesarean section | 1 |
| Mid-cavity or rotational operative delivery | 1 |
| Prolonged labor (>24 hours) | 1 |
| PPH (>1 litre or transfusion) | 1 |
| Preterm birth <37+0 weeks in current pregnancy | 1 |
| Stillbirth in current pregnancy | 1 |
| Transient risk factors | |
| Any surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium except immediate repair of the perineum, e.g. appendicectomy, postpartum sterilisation | 3 |
| Hyperemesis | 3 |
| OHSS (first trimester only) | 4 |
| Current systemic infection | 1 |
| Immobility, dehydration | 1 |
VTE – venous thromboembolism; BMI – body mass index; ART – assisted reproductive technology; IVF – in vitro fertilization; PPH – postpartum hemorrhage.
Risk factors with score ≥4 are considered as high-risk factor; risk factors with score of 2–3 are considered as intermediate-risk factors; risk factors with score of 1 are considered as low-risk factors.
ART/IVF is regarded as a risk factor for antenatal VTE, and ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) is regarded as a risk factor for VTE only in the first trimester.
VTE events.
| Patient | VTE event | Confirmed time | RCOG score | Risk factor | Anticoagulant during pregnancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DVT (both) | Day 2 | 5 | Age >35 years, elective caesarean section, surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium | No |
| 2 | DVT (left) | Day 2 | 1 | Elective caesarean section | No |
| 3 | DVT (right) +PE | Day 3 | 8 | Previous VTE (PE during puerperium), family history of VTE, age >35 years, elective caesarean section, preterm birth | No |
| 4 | DVT (both) +PE | Day 2 | 3 | Caesarean section in labour, immobility | No |
| 5 | DVT (left) +PE | Day 2 | 2 | Smoker, elective caesarean section | No |
| 6 | DVT (left) | Day 4 | 6 | Low-risk thrombophilia (APS), age >35 years, elective caesarean section, surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium | Heparin since 1st trimester |
| 7 | DVT (left) | Day 3 | 5 | Family history of VTE, age >35 years, BMI >30, gross varicose veins, elective caesarean section | No |
| 8 | DVT (left) +PE | Day 3 | 3 | Age >35 years, caesarean section in labour | No |
| 9 | DVT (both) +PE | Day 2 | 1 | Elective caesarean section | No |
| 10 | DVT (both) | Day 2 | 4 | Medical comorbidities, elective caesarean section | No |
| 11 | DVT (both) | Day 3 | 4 | Elective caesarean section, surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium | No |
| 12 | DVT (both) | 10+ weeks, Day 2 | 5 | Smoker, previous VTE (DVT found in 1st trimester in this pregnancy) | LMWH since 1st trimester |
| 13 | DVT (left) | Day 3 | 2 | Family history of VTE, elective caesarean section | No |
| 14 | DVT (both) | Day 2 | 2 | Caesarean section in labour | No |
| 15 | DVT (right) | Day 2 | 6 | Age >35 years, current systemic infection, caesarean section in labour, preterm birth, immobility | No |
| 16 | DVT (both) | Day 3 | 2 | Caesarean section in labour | No |
| 17 | DVT (left) | Day 3 | 3 | Age >35 years, caesarean section in labour | No |
| 18 | DVT (right) | Day 2 | 5 | Age >35 years, elective caesarean section, surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium | No |
| 19 | DVT (both) +PE | 7+ weeks, Day 3 | 6 | Previous VTE (non-surgical DVT, and DVT found in 1st trimester in this pregnancy), family history of VTE, low-risk thrombophilia (APS) | LMWH since 1st trimester |
| 20 | DVT (left) | Day 2 | 4 | Family history of VTE, pre-eclampsia, caesarean section in labour | No |
| 21 | DVT (left) | Day 4 | 3 | Low-risk thrombophilia (APS), caesarean section in labour | No |
| 22 | DVT (left) | Day 3 | 4 | Smoker, age >35 years, caesarean section in labour | No |
| 23 | DVT (left) +PE | Day 3 | 2 | Caesarean section in labour | No |
| 24 | DVT (left) +PE | Day 2 | 3 | Age >35 years, caesarean section in labour | No |
| 25 | DVT (left) +PE | Day 2 | 2 | Family history of VTE, elective caesarean section | No |
| 26 | DVT (left) | Day 3 | 1 | Elective caesarean section | No |
| 27 | DVT (left) +PE | Day 3 | 2 | Multiple pregnancy, elective caesarean section | No |
| 28 | DVT (right) +PE | Day 4 | 10 | Age >35 years, pre-eclampsia, multiple pregnancy, caesarean section in labour, PPH, preterm birth, surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium | No |
| 29 | DVT (both) | Day 2 | 3 | Age >35 years, caesarean section in labour | No |
| 30 | DVT (left) | Day 5 | 5 | Age >35 years, parity >3, caesarean section in labour, current systemic infection | No |
| 31 | DVT (left) | Day 2 | 3 | Medical comorbidities | No |
| 32 | DVT (both) | 30+weeks, Day 2 | 11 | Previous VTE (prenatal DVT in this pregnancy), low-risk thrombophilia (APS), family history of VTE, multiple pregnancy, elective caesarean section, surgical procedure in pregnancy or puerperium | LMWH since 3rd trimester |
| 33 | DVT (left) +PE | Day 3 | 3 | Age >35 years, caesarean section in labour | No |
| 34 | DVT (left) | Day 3 | 1 | Elective caesarean section | No |
| 35 | DVT (left) | Day 6 | 3 | Multiple pregnancy, elective caesarean section, preterm birth | No |
| 36 | DVT (left) | Day 4 | 3 | Caesarean section in labour, current systemic infection | No |
| 37 | DVT (right) | Day 2 | 3 | Caesarean section in labour, current systemic infection | No |
| 38 | DVT (right) | Day 2 | 3 | Family history of VTE, caesarean section in labour | No |
VTE – venous thromboembolism; DVT – deep venous thrombosis; PE – pulmonary embolism; APS – antiphospholipid syndrome; LMWH – low-molecular-weight heparin.
“Confirmed Time” refers to the time of initial diagnosis of VTE before and/or after delivery. Day 2, Day 3, etc. indicate the second or third day, respectively, after childbirth.
Artificial reproductive technology/in vitro fertilization and ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome are risk factors for VTE antenatally, so they are not included in this table for postpartum VTE assessment.