Meihua Jin1, Hye In Kim2, Jeonghoon Ha3, Min Ji Jeon1, Won Gu Kim1, Dong-Jun Lim3, Tae Yong Kim1, Jae Hoon Chung4, Young Kee Shong1, Tae Hyuk Kim4, Won Bae Kim1. 1. Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 2. Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon, Republic of Korea. 3. Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 4. Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Thyroid Cancer, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Abstract
Background: Some papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs) may progress with tumor enlargement or development of new lymph node (LN) metastasis during active surveillance (AS). This study evaluated the relevant predictors of disease progression, especially new cervical LN metastasis. Methods: This was a long-term follow-up study conducted using a previous multicenter cohort of AS in Korea. After excluding 54 (14.2%) patients with a short follow-up duration, 326 PTMC patients were evaluated for tumor kinetics, including changes in tumor volume (TV) and TV doubling time (TVDT). Results: During a median follow-up duration of 4.9 years, 17 (5.2%, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.7-7.6%) patients showed a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm after a median of 4.0 years follow-up, while 9 (2.8%, CI 1.0-4.5%) developed new LN metastasis after a median of 2.2 years follow-up. New cervical LN metastasis occurred exclusively of a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The prevalence of new development of LN metastasis was higher in patients with TVDT <5 years (7.4%) than in those with TV ≥50% (3.2%). Furthermore, only TVDT <5 years was significantly associated with LN metastasis (p = 0.002). In univariate and multivariate analyses, TVDT <5 years was an independent risk factor for disease progression with respect to new development of LN metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.51, CI 1.73-24.50; p = 0.002) and tumor enlargement (HR = 20.89, CI 5.78-75.48; p < 0.001). Finally, 86 (22.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery, and the most common reason was patient anxiety. Conclusions: TVDT <5 years is a predictor of disease progression during AS in terms of new LN metastasis development as well as tumor enlargement. Determination of TVDT in the early phase of AS could help in predicting disease progression, tailoring follow-up intensity of AS and in determining if early surgical intervention is needed.
Background: Some papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs) may progress with tumor enlargement or development of new lymph node (LN) metastasis during active surveillance (AS). This study evaluated the relevant predictors of disease progression, especially new cervical LN metastasis. Methods: This was a long-term follow-up study conducted using a previous multicenter cohort of AS in Korea. After excluding 54 (14.2%) patients with a short follow-up duration, 326 PTMC patients were evaluated for tumor kinetics, including changes in tumor volume (TV) and TV doubling time (TVDT). Results: During a median follow-up duration of 4.9 years, 17 (5.2%, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.7-7.6%) patients showed a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm after a median of 4.0 years follow-up, while 9 (2.8%, CI 1.0-4.5%) developed new LN metastasis after a median of 2.2 years follow-up. New cervical LN metastasis occurred exclusively of a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The prevalence of new development of LN metastasis was higher in patients with TVDT <5 years (7.4%) than in those with TV ≥50% (3.2%). Furthermore, only TVDT <5 years was significantly associated with LN metastasis (p = 0.002). In univariate and multivariate analyses, TVDT <5 years was an independent risk factor for disease progression with respect to new development of LN metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.51, CI 1.73-24.50; p = 0.002) and tumor enlargement (HR = 20.89, CI 5.78-75.48; p < 0.001). Finally, 86 (22.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery, and the most common reason was patient anxiety. Conclusions: TVDT <5 years is a predictor of disease progression during AS in terms of new LN metastasis development as well as tumor enlargement. Determination of TVDT in the early phase of AS could help in predicting disease progression, tailoring follow-up intensity of AS and in determining if early surgical intervention is needed.
Entities:
Keywords:
active surveillance; papillary thyroid carcinoma; progression; tumor volume doubling time