| Literature DB >> 34221915 |
Bin Xu1,2, Xiao-Long Li1,2, Feng Ye3, Xiao-Dong Zhu1,2, Ying-Hao Shen1,2, Cheng Huang1,2, Jian Zhou1,2, Jia Fan1,2, Yong-Jun Chen3, Hui-Chuan Sun1,2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a severe complication and main cause of death in patients undergoing hepatectomy. The aim of this study was to build a predictive model of PHLF in patients undergoing hepatectomy.Entities:
Keywords: Hepatectomy; LASSO; Nomogram; Post-hepatectomy liver failure
Year: 2021 PMID: 34221915 PMCID: PMC8237151 DOI: 10.14218/JCTH.2021.00013
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Clin Transl Hepatol ISSN: 2225-0719
Fig. 1Flowchart of this study’s design.
Comparison of clinical characteristics between development and internal validation cohorts
| Variables | Development cohort, | Internal validation cohort, | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age in years | 56.4±11.2 | 57.0±10.9 | 0.625 |
| Sex | 0.714 | ||
| Male | 298 (86.6%) | 130 (87.8%) | |
| Female | 46 (13.4%) | 18 (12.2%) | |
| Diabetes | 0.878 | ||
| No | 291 (84.6%) | 126 (85.1%) | |
| Yes | 53 (15.4%) | 22 (14.9%) | |
| HBsAg | 0.078 | ||
| − | 56 (16.3%) | 34 (23.0%) | |
| + | 288 (83.7%) | 114 (77.0%) | |
| HBeAg | 0.763 | ||
| − | 282 (82.0%) | 123 (83.1%) | |
| + | 62 (18.0%) | 25 (16.9%) | |
| HBV DNA | 0.275 | ||
| ≤103/mL | 198 (57.6%) | 93 (62.8%) | |
| >103/mL | 146 (42.4%) | 55 (37.2%) | |
| Hb in g/L | 143.0 (127.0–153.0) | 142.0 (133.0–150.3) | 0.948 |
| WBC as ×109/L | 5.3 (4.2–6.5) | 5.3 (4.5–6.3) | 0.587 |
| PLT as ×109/L | 148.0 (106.0–207.0) | 162.5 (114–195.3) | 0.400 |
| TB in µmol/L | 11.9 (8.8–15.9) | 11.7 (9.2–16.5) | 0.886 |
| ALB in g/L | 42.0 (39.0–45.0) | 42.0 (39.0–45.0) | 0.708 |
| P-ALB in g/L | 0.22 (0.17–0.26) | 0.22 (0.18–0.26) | 0.590 |
| ALT in U/L | 29.0 (20.0–43.0) | 29.0 (20.8–42.3) | 0.717 |
| GGT in U/L | 56.5 (33.0–108.0) | 63.0 (34.8–115.5) | 0.734 |
| INR | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | 1.03 (0.97–0.106) | 0.345 |
| HA in ng/mL | 87.3 (64.2–135.2) | 85.5 (60.0–135.4) | 0.486 |
| LN in ng/mL | 50.0 (50.0–67.0) | 50.0 (50.0–64.8) | 0.536 |
| PIIINP in ng/mL | 6.5 (5.3–8.4) | 6.7 (5.4–8.4) | 0.829 |
| IV-col in ng/mL | 51.8 (50.0–83.9) | 54.6 (50.0–79.6) | 0.807 |
| LS in kPa | 12.0 (9.2–15.2) | 11.4 (8.5–15.0) | 0.240 |
| Gastroesophageal varices | 0.634 | ||
| No | 309 (89.8%) | 135 (91.2%) | |
| Yes | 35 (10.2%) | 13 (8.8%) | |
| Splenomegaly | 0.285 | ||
| No | 90 (26.2%) | 32 (21.6%) | |
| Yes | 254 (73.8%) | 116 (78.4%) | |
| Extent of resection | 0.395 | ||
| Minor, <3 Couinaud’s segments | 250 (72.7%) | 113 (76.4%) | |
| Major, ≥3 Couinaud’s segments | 94 (27.3%) | 35 (23.6%) | |
| Hilar occlusion in min | 15.0 (0.0–18.0) | 14.5 (0.0–18.3) | 0.740 |
| Intraoperative blood loss in mL | 200.0 (100.0–300.0) | 200.0 (100.0–300.0) | 0.816 |
| Causes of hepatectomy | 1 | ||
| Malignant tumor | 343 (99.7%) | 148 (100%) | |
| Benign tumor | 1 (0.3%) | 0 (0%) | |
| PHLF† | 0.330 | ||
| No | 253 (73.5%) | 115 (77.7%) | |
| Yes | 91 (26.5%) | 33 (22.3%) | |
| PHLF grade‡ | 0.300 | ||
| 0 | 253 (73.5%) | 115 (77.7%) | |
| A | 63 (18.3%) | 24 (16.2%) | |
| B | 19 (5.5%) | 8 (5.4%) | |
| C | 9 (2.6%) | 1 (0.7%) | |
| Hospital stay as median (IQR) in days | 8 (7–11) | 8.5 (7–11) | 0.863 |
†PHLF was defined as postoperative deterioration of liver function with an increase in the INR and concomitant hyperbilirubinemia on or after postoperative day 5, as proposed by the ISGLS. ‡Following the ISGLS definition of PHLF grade. ALT, alanine aminotransferase; Hb, hemoglobin; HBeAg, hepatitis B e antigen; HBsAg, hepatitis B surface antigen; HBV DNA, hepatitis B virus DNA; HA, hyaluronic acid; IV-col, type IV collagen; LN, laminin; LS, liver stiffness; P-ALB, pre-albumin; PIIINP, precollagen III N-terminal peptide; PLT, platelet count; WBC, white blood cell; GGT, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase.
Independent predictors of PHLF after multivariate logistic analysis
| Variables | β | OR | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | −15.585 | |||
| TB in µmol/L | 0.074 | 1.077 | 1.029–1.128 | 0.001 |
| INR†, per 0.1 increase | 1.332 | 3.788 | 2.531–5.867 | <0.001 |
| PLT, per 109/L increase | −0.007 | 0.993 | 0.989–0.998 | 0.004 |
| Extent of resection | ||||
| Minor, <3 segments | 1 | |||
| Major, ≥3 segments | 1.059 | 2.883 | 1.471–5.716 | 0.002 |
| Blood loss‡, per 100 mL increase | 0.132 | 1.141 | 1.043–1.251 | 0.004 |
†INR was multiplied by 10 and put into the multivariate binary logistic regression model. ‡Blood loss was divided by 100 and put into the multivariate binary logistic regression model. The score and predicted probability of PHLF can be calculated using the following formulas: PHLF score: 0.074 × TB + 1.332 × INR (multiplied by 10) − 0.007 × PLT (per 109/L) + 1.059 × extent of resection (major=1; minor=0) + 0.132 × blood loss (divided by 100). The predicted probability of PHLF=1/(1+exp (−PHLF score + 15.585)). CI, confidence interval; OR, odds ratio.
Fig. 2Nomogram for the prediction of PHLF.
The nomogram was established based on the development cohort. PHLF, post-hepatectomy liver failure.
Fig. 3ROC curves and decision curves for the prediction of PHLF.
ROC curves of PHLF score, MELD score, ALBI score and PALBI score in the (A) development cohort, (B) internal validation cohort and (C) external validation cohort. Decision curves of PHLF score, MELD score, ALBI score and PALBI score in the (D) development cohort, (E) internal validation cohort and (F) external validation cohort. The orange line indicates the net benefit of assuming that all patients have PHLF. The black line indicates the net benefit of assuming no patients have PHLF. ALBI, albumin-bilirubin; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; PALBI, platelet-albumin-bilirubin; PHLF, post-hepatectomy liver failure; ROC, receiver operating characteristics curve.
Fig. 4Calibration curves for the prediction of PHLF.
Calibration curves of the PHLF score in (A) development cohort and (B) internal validation cohort. The diagonal blue dashed line represents a perfect prediction by an ideal model. The pink solid line represents the performance of the predictive model, of which a closer fit to the diagonal blue dashed line represents a better prediction. PHLF, post-hepatectomy liver failure.
Incidences of PHLF of high-risk and low-risk groups with a cut-off value of 14.7 by the PHLF score in development and two validation cohorts
| Development cohort, | Internal validation cohort, | External validation cohort, | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-risk group, | Low-risk group, | High-risk group, | Low-risk group, | High-risk group, | Low-risk group, | ||||
| PHLF† | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.013 | ||||||
| No | 56 (44.4%) | 197 (90.4%) | 27 (57.4%) | 88 (87.1%) | 59 (83.1%) | 91 (94.8%) | |||
| Yes | 70 (55.6%) | 21 (9.6%) | 20 (42.6%) | 13 (12.9%) | 12 (16.9%) | 5 (5.2%) | |||
| PHLF grade† | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.015 | ||||||
| 0 | 56 (44.4%) | 197 (90.4%) | 27 (57.4%) | 88 (87.1%) | 59 (83.1%) | 91 (94.8%) | |||
| A | 48 (38.1%) | 15 (6.9%) | 12 (25.5%) | 12 (11.9%) | 9 (12.7%) | 3 (3.1%) | |||
| B | 15 (11.9%) | 4 (1.8%) | 7 (14.9%) | 1 (1.0%) | 1 (1.4%) | 2 (2.1%) | |||
| C | 7 (5.6%) | 2 (0.9%) | 1 (2.1%) | 0 (0%) | 2 (2.8%) | 0 (0%) | |||
†PHLF was defined as postoperative deterioration of liver function with an increase in the INR and concomitant hyperbilirubinemia on or after postoperative day 5 as proposed by the ISGLS. ‡Following the ISGLS definition of PHLF grade.
Fig. 5Relationship between the value of the PHLF score and occurrence of PHLF in (A) development cohort, (B) internal validation cohort and (C) external validation cohort.
The horizontal dotted line indicates the cut-off value of the PHLF score (14.7) for the prediction of PHLF. Patients with PHLF score ≥14.7 belong to the high-risk group, otherwise patients were classified in the low-risk group. *p<0.05, **p<0.001, in comparison with the low-risk group. PHLF, post-hepatectomy liver failure.